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Vitória de Guimaraes vs Braga: prediction and statistics
Portugal · Taça de Portugal · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Vitória de Guimaraes · Braga
Before kick-off
Vitória de Guimaraes host Braga in Taça de Portugal on 21 November 2026.
Vitória de Guimaraes have been solid lately: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in the last 5 matches. An uneven run for Braga: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from the last 5 games.
The home record of Vitória de Guimaraes (2024/25–2026/27) is balanced: 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in 6 matches, 2.2 scored and 0.7 conceded per game. On the road Braga are a dangerous side — 4 wins and 2 defeats in 6 away matches, 1.5 scored and 0.7 conceded per game.
The 53 previous meetings are fairly balanced — Vitória de Guimaraes 14, Braga 27, draws 12. Last time out (31 August 2026) it ended Braga 1:0 Vitória de Guimaraes. On average these meetings produce 2.3 goals.
Form
Vitória de Guimaraes: last five matches — W-D-D-W-L.
Braga: last five matches — D-L-L-D-W.
- 5 matches in a row without both teams scoring · away
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
- 4 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Home and away record
Vitória de Guimaraes at home and Braga away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Vitória de Guimaraes | Braga | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 3-1-2 | 4-0-2 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.2 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.7 | 0.7 |
Head to head
53 meetings in our database: Vitória de Guimaraes won 14, 12 draws, Braga won 27. Per match: 2.3 goals.
- 31.08.2026: Braga 1:0 Vitória de Guimaraes
- 21.02.2026: Braga 3:2 Vitória de Guimaraes
- 10.01.2026: Vitória de Guimaraes 2:1 Braga
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 50% of Vitória de Guimaraes home games and 50% of Braga away games.
- Our model sees an open game: Vitória de Guimaraes 31%, draw 27%, Braga 41%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 4.7 yellow cards: Vitória de Guimaraes 2.4, Braga 2.4; typical match of the competition — 5.1. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 51% (typical match — 57%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 70%, typical match 75%.
Result
Our model: Vitória de Guimaraes win 31%, draw 27%, Braga win 41%. Over 2.5 goals — 44%, both teams to score — 49%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Vitória de Guimaraes | Braga | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 50% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams score | 33% | 33% |
| Total corners per match | 9.0 | 9.0 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 50% | 0% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.7 | 3.5 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 50% | 33% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 9.8 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 4.3 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.