Xpect
Estoril vs Felgueiras 1932: prediction and statistics
Portugal · Taça de Portugal · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Estoril · Felgueiras 1932
Before kick-off
Taça de Portugal, 21 November 2026: Estoril are at home to Felgueiras 1932.
The last 5 games brought Estoril no victory — 2 draws and 3 defeats. Results have gone against Felgueiras 1932 recently — 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from the last 5 games.
Estoril have not made their ground a fortress: 2 draws and 4 defeats in 6 home matches (2024/25–2026/27), 0.7 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per game. The away record of Felgueiras 1932: 2 wins and 4 defeats in 6 matches, with 1.3 goals scored and 1.2 conceded on average.
The sides have rarely met: the Xpect database holds 1 meeting between them. The most recent meeting, on 17 October 2021, finished Felgueiras 1932 0:1 Estoril.
Form
Estoril: last five matches — D-L-D-L-L.
- 14 matches without a win · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Felgueiras 1932: last five matches — D-L-W-L-L.
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
- 3 matches without a win · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Home and away record
Estoril at home and Felgueiras 1932 away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Estoril | Felgueiras 1932 | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 0-2-4 | 2-0-4 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.7 | 1.2 |
Head to head
1 meetings in our database: Estoril won 1, 0 draws, Felgueiras 1932 won 0. Per match: 1.0 goals.
- 17.10.2021: Felgueiras 1932 0:1 Estoril
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Estoril is the more likely winner in our model: 58%, draw 25%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 50% of Estoril’s home matches and 33% of Felgueiras 1932’s away matches over three seasons.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.1 yellow cards: Estoril 2.3, Felgueiras 1932 2.8; typical match of the competition — 5.1. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 57% (typical match — 57%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 4.5 — 57%, typical match 57%.
Result
Our model: Estoril win 58%, draw 25%, Felgueiras 1932 win 17%. Over 2.5 goals — 42%, both teams to score — 42%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Estoril | Felgueiras 1932 | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 0% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 33% |
| Both teams score | 67% | 17% |
| Total corners per match | 10.4 | 11.0 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 60% | 100% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.5 | 1.7 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 33% | 0% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 7.0 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.