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Mafra vs Arouca: prediction and statistics
Portugal · Taça de Portugal · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Before kick-off
Mafra host Arouca in Taça de Portugal on 21 November 2026.
Mafra arrive in excellent form: 3 wins and 2 draws in the last 5 matches. Recent results of Arouca are mostly positive — 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from 5 games.
Home advantage matters here: Mafra have 4 wins and 2 draws in 6 home matches (2024/25–2026/27), scoring 2.5 and conceding 1.2 per game. On the road Arouca are a dangerous side — 4 wins and 2 defeats in 6 away matches, 2.2 scored and 1.2 conceded per game. Goals are rarely in short supply in these samples: 3.7 per game in home matches of Mafra and 3.3 in away matches of Arouca.
Draws are a feature of this pairing — 3 in 4 meetings. Last time out (15 May 2021) it ended Mafra 0:1 Arouca. On average these meetings produce 1.8 goals.
Form
Mafra: last five matches — W-D-D-W-W.
- 9 matches unbeaten · at home
- 7 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 7 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
Arouca: last five matches — D-D-W-W-L.
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
Home and away record
Mafra at home and Arouca away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Mafra | Arouca | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 4-2-0 | 4-0-2 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.5 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
Head to head
4 meetings in our database: Mafra won 0, 3 draws, Arouca won 1. Per match: 1.8 goals.
- 15.05.2021: Mafra 0:1 Arouca
- 17.01.2021: Arouca 0:0 Mafra
- 02.03.2019: Mafra 1:1 Arouca
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- 3 of the 4 meetings between these teams ended in a draw.
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 83% of Mafra home games and 67% of Arouca away games.
- Our model makes Arouca the favourite at 72%; a draw is 18%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.0 yellow cards: Mafra 2.1, Arouca 2.9; typical match of the competition — 5.1. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 56% (typical match — 57%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 73%, typical match 75%.
Result
Our model: Mafra win 10%, draw 18%, Arouca win 72%. Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 44%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Mafra | Arouca | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 67% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 83% | 67% |
| Both teams score | 67% | 50% |
| Total corners per match | — | 8.5 |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | 50% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 2.7 | 3.2 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 33% | 17% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 10.5 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 2.3 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.