Xpect
Sporting CP vs Uniao da Serra: prediction and statistics
Portugal · Taça de Portugal · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Sporting CP · Uniao da Serra
Before kick-off
Taça de Portugal, 21 November 2026: Sporting CP are at home to Uniao da Serra.
An uneven run for Sporting CP: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from the last 5 games. Uniao da Serra have been solid lately: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in the last 5 matches. In points that is almost level: 7 against 8.
Sporting CP are hard to beat on their own ground — 6 wins and 1 defeat in 7 home matches (2024/25–2026/27), with 2.6 goals scored and 0.7 conceded per game. The away record of Uniao da Serra: 2 wins, 1 draw and 3 defeats in 6 matches, with 1.3 goals scored and 1.7 conceded on average. Goals are rarely in short supply in these samples: 3.3 per game in home matches of Sporting CP and 3.0 in away matches of Uniao da Serra.
There are no previous meetings between the two sides in the Xpect database.
Form
Sporting CP: last five matches — D-L-L-W-W.
- 4 wins in a row · all competitions
- 4 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Uniao da Serra: last five matches — D-W-W-D-L.
- 8 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
- 4 matches without a win · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Home and away record
Sporting CP at home and Uniao da Serra away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Sporting CP | Uniao da Serra | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 7 | 6 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 6-0-1 | 2-1-3 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.7 | 1.7 |
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Sporting CP is the more likely winner in our model: 92%, draw 8%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 71% of Sporting CP’s home matches and 50% of Uniao da Serra’s away matches over three seasons.
Result
Our model: Sporting CP win 92%, draw 8%, Uniao da Serra win 1%. Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 9%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Sporting CP | Uniao da Serra | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 86% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 50% |
| Both teams score | 43% | 67% |
| Total corners per match | 15.0 | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | 75% | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.4 | 1.6 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 57% | 20% |
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.