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AVS vs Tondela: prediction and statistics
Portugal · Taça de Portugal · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Before kick-off
AVS host Tondela in Taça de Portugal on 21 November 2026.
AVS arrive in excellent form: 3 wins and 2 draws in the last 5 matches. An uneven run for Tondela: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from the last 5 games.
Home advantage matters here: AVS have 4 wins and 2 draws in 6 home matches (2024/25–2026/27), scoring 2.3 and conceding 1.5 per game. On the road Tondela are a dangerous side — 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in 6 away matches, 2.5 scored and 1.2 conceded per game. Goals are rarely in short supply in these samples: 3.8 per game in home matches of AVS and 3.7 in away matches of Tondela.
Draws are a feature of this pairing — 2 in 5 meetings. Last time out (25 October 2026) it ended AVS 2:1 Tondela. On average these meetings produce 2.6 goals.
Form
AVS: last five matches — W-D-W-W-D.
- 5 matches unbeaten · at home
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
Tondela: last five matches — L-W-W-L-D.
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · away
- 3 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · all competitions
Home and away record
AVS at home and Tondela away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| AVS | Tondela | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 4-2-0 | 3-1-2 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.3 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.5 | 1.2 |
Head to head
5 meetings in our database: AVS won 1, 2 draws, Tondela won 2. Per match: 2.6 goals.
- 25.10.2026: AVS 2:1 Tondela
- 21.03.2026: Tondela 0:0 AVS
- 02.11.2025: AVS 2:2 Tondela
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- 2 of the 5 meetings between these teams ended in a draw.
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 50% of AVS home games and 67% of Tondela away games.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.4 yellow cards: AVS 2.1, Tondela 2.2; typical match of the competition — 5.1. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 45% (typical match — 57%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 55%, typical match 43%.
Result
Our model: AVS win 45%, draw 27%, Tondela win 28%. Over 2.5 goals — 44%, both teams to score — 49%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| AVS | Tondela | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 67% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 67% |
| Both teams score | 50% | 83% |
| Total corners per match | 9.5 | 13.0 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 50% | 100% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.0 | 2.7 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 60% | 17% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 12.5 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 5.8 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.