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Briton Ferry vs Holywell: prediction and statistics
Wales · Premier League · 20 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Briton Ferry · Holywell
Before kick-off
Premier League, 20 November 2026: Briton Ferry are at home to Holywell. Briton Ferry go into the match 12th of 16 in the table, Holywell are 16th. Holywell are in the bottom three.
Recent results of Briton Ferry are mostly positive — 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from 5 games. Holywell are still looking for a win: 1 draw and 4 defeats in the last 5 matches. On points from those games the gap is clear: 10 for Briton Ferry against 1 for Holywell.
Briton Ferry have not made their ground a fortress: 12 wins, 9 draws and 18 defeats in 39 home matches (2024/25–2026/27), 1.3 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game. Trips have rarely paid off for Holywell — 7 defeats in 7 away matches, scoring 0.9 and conceding 3.6 on average.
The sides have rarely met: the Xpect database holds 1 meeting between them. The most recent meeting, on 26 September 2026, finished Holywell 1:1 Briton Ferry.
Form
Briton Ferry: last five matches — D-W-L-W-W.
- 5 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Holywell: last five matches — L-L-L-D-L.
- 19 matches without a win · all competitions
- 5 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Table: Briton Ferry — 12, Holywell — 16 (of 16).
Home and away record
Briton Ferry at home and Holywell away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Briton Ferry | Holywell | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 39 | 7 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 12-9-18 | 0-0-7 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.6 | 3.6 |
Head to head
1 meetings in our database: Briton Ferry won 0, 1 draws, Holywell won 0. Per match: 2.0 goals.
- 26.09.2026: Holywell 1:1 Briton Ferry
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Briton Ferry is the more likely winner in our model: 66%, draw 18%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 56% of Briton Ferry’s home matches and 86% of Holywell’s away matches over three seasons.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.1 yellow cards: Briton Ferry 1.9, Holywell 2.2; typical match of the competition — 4.2. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 40% (typical match — 41%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 60%, typical match 59%.
Result
Our model: Briton Ferry win 66%, draw 18%, Holywell win 16%. Over 2.5 goals — 68%, both teams to score — 61%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Briton Ferry | Holywell | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 31% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 86% |
| Both teams score | 59% | 71% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.6 | 5.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 21% | 43% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 6.0 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.