Xpect
The New Saints vs Trefelin: prediction and statistics
Wales · Premier League · 20 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: The New Saints · Trefelin
Before kick-off
Premier League, 20 November 2026: The New Saints are at home to Trefelin. The New Saints sit 1st in the 16-team table while Trefelin are 15th, so 14 places separate the two sides. Trefelin are in the bottom three.
Few sides are in better shape than The New Saints right now — 4 wins and 1 draw from the last 5 games. Trefelin have blown hot and cold: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches. On points from those games the gap is clear: 13 for The New Saints against 5 for Trefelin.
The New Saints are hard to beat on their own ground — 35 wins, 1 draw and 5 defeats in 41 home matches (2024/25–2026/27), with 3.1 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game. Trips have rarely paid off for Trefelin — 1 win, 2 draws and 5 defeats in 8 away matches, scoring 0.8 and conceding 2.4 on average. Goals are rarely in short supply in these samples: 3.9 per game in home matches of The New Saints and 3.1 in away matches of Trefelin.
The sides have rarely met: the Xpect database holds 1 meeting between them. The most recent meeting, on 26 September 2026, finished Trefelin 1:3 The New Saints.
Form
The New Saints: last five matches — W-W-W-W-D.
- 18 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · at home
Trefelin: last five matches — D-D-L-W-L.
- 8 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · away
- 3 losses in a row · all competitions
Table: The New Saints — 1, Trefelin — 15 (of 16).
Home and away record
The New Saints at home and Trefelin away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| The New Saints | Trefelin | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 41 | 8 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 35-1-5 | 1-2-5 |
| Goals scored per match | 3.1 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.8 | 2.4 |
Head to head
1 meetings in our database: The New Saints won 1, 0 draws, Trefelin won 0. Per match: 4.0 goals.
- 26.09.2026: Trefelin 1:3 The New Saints
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- The New Saints is the more likely winner in our model: 91%, draw 7%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 76% of The New Saints’s home matches and 63% of Trefelin’s away matches over three seasons.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.2 yellow cards: The New Saints 1.5, Trefelin 1.7; typical match of the competition — 4.2. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 21% (typical match — 41%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 61%, typical match 40%.
Result
Our model: The New Saints win 91%, draw 7%, Trefelin win 2%. Over 2.5 goals — 68%, both teams to score — 27%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| The New Saints | Trefelin | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 85% | 13% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 76% | 63% |
| Both teams score | 44% | 50% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 2.5 | 2.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 20% | 0% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 2.0 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.