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Penybont vs Haverfordwest County AFC: prediction and statistics
Wales · Premier League · 20 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Penybont · Haverfordwest County AFC
Before kick-off
Penybont host Haverfordwest County AFC in Premier League on 20 November 2026. In the table there is clear daylight between them: Penybont are 3rd of 16, Haverfordwest County AFC 11th — a gap of 8 places. Penybont are in the top three.
Penybont arrive in excellent form: 5 wins in the last 5 matches. An uneven run for Haverfordwest County AFC: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from the last 5 games. Counted in points, Penybont took 15 from that stretch and Haverfordwest County AFC only 7.
Home advantage matters here: Penybont have 22 wins, 13 draws and 6 defeats in 41 home matches (2024/25–2026/27), scoring 1.5 and conceding 0.8 per game. Away from home Haverfordwest County AFC have 14 wins, 12 draws and 15 defeats in 41 matches, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.2 per game. Both samples are low on goals: 2.2 per game in home matches of Penybont and 2.1 in away matches of Haverfordwest County AFC.
History favours Penybont — 16 wins from 22 meetings with Haverfordwest County AFC. Last time out (14 August 2026) it ended Haverfordwest County AFC 0:3 Penybont. On average these meetings produce 2.3 goals.
Form
Penybont: last five matches — W-W-W-W-W.
- 8 matches unbeaten · at home
- 5 wins in a row · at home
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
Haverfordwest County AFC: last five matches — D-L-L-W-W.
Table: Penybont — 3, Haverfordwest County AFC — 11 (of 16).
Home and away record
Penybont at home and Haverfordwest County AFC away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Penybont | Haverfordwest County AFC | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 41 | 41 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 22-13-6 | 14-12-15 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.8 | 1.2 |
Head to head
22 meetings in our database: Penybont won 16, 4 draws, Haverfordwest County AFC won 2. Per match: 2.3 goals.
- 14.08.2026: Haverfordwest County AFC 0:3 Penybont
- 02.05.2026: Penybont 2:0 Haverfordwest County AFC
- 07.10.2025: Penybont 2:1 Haverfordwest County AFC
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Penybont has won 16 of the last 22 meetings with Haverfordwest County AFC.
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 37% of Penybont home games and 32% of Haverfordwest County AFC away games.
- Our model makes Penybont the favourite at 64%; a draw is 22%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.0 yellow cards: Penybont 1.9, Haverfordwest County AFC 2.1; typical match of the competition — 4.2. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 38% (typical match — 41%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 62%, typical match 59%.
Result
Our model: Penybont win 64%, draw 22%, Haverfordwest County AFC win 14%. Over 2.5 goals — 47%, both teams to score — 43%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Penybont | Haverfordwest County AFC | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 54% | 34% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 32% |
| Both teams score | 46% | 34% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.3 | 4.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 42% | 34% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 4.4 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.