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Caernarfon Town vs GAP Connah S Quay FC: prediction and statistics
Wales · Premier League · 20 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Caernarfon Town · GAP Connah S Quay FC
Before kick-off
Caernarfon Town host GAP Connah S Quay FC in Premier League on 20 November 2026. In the standings Caernarfon Town are 6th and GAP Connah S Quay FC 2nd out of 16 teams. GAP Connah S Quay FC are part of the leading group.
Caernarfon Town have been solid lately: 3 wins and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches. Recent results of GAP Connah S Quay FC are mostly positive — 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from 5 games. Measured in points the two runs are close — 9 and 10.
The home record of Caernarfon Town (2024/25–2026/27) is balanced: 18 wins, 6 draws and 17 defeats in 41 matches, 2.1 scored and 1.7 conceded per game. On the road GAP Connah S Quay FC are a dangerous side — 18 wins, 10 draws and 11 defeats in 39 away matches, 1.6 scored and 1.1 conceded per game.
The 29 previous meetings are fairly balanced — Caernarfon Town 6, GAP Connah S Quay FC 15, draws 8. Last time out (2 August 2026) it ended GAP Connah S Quay FC 1:2 Caernarfon Town. On average these meetings produce 3.5 goals.
Form
Caernarfon Town: last five matches — L-W-W-L-W.
- 9 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
GAP Connah S Quay FC: last five matches — W-L-W-W-D.
- 9 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
Table: Caernarfon Town — 6, GAP Connah S Quay FC — 2 (of 16).
Home and away record
Caernarfon Town at home and GAP Connah S Quay FC away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Caernarfon Town | GAP Connah S Quay FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 41 | 39 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 18-6-17 | 18-10-11 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.1 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.7 | 1.1 |
Head to head
29 meetings in our database: Caernarfon Town won 6, 8 draws, GAP Connah S Quay FC won 15. Per match: 3.5 goals.
- 02.08.2026: GAP Connah S Quay FC 1:2 Caernarfon Town
- 13.03.2026: Caernarfon Town 2:4 GAP Connah S Quay FC
- 06.02.2026: GAP Connah S Quay FC 1:1 Caernarfon Town
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 78% of Caernarfon Town home games and 59% of GAP Connah S Quay FC away games.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.0 yellow cards: Caernarfon Town 2.4, GAP Connah S Quay FC 1.6; typical match of the competition — 4.2. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 37% (typical match — 41%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 63%, typical match 59%.
Result
Our model: Caernarfon Town win 31%, draw 24%, GAP Connah S Quay FC win 45%. Over 2.5 goals — 58%, both teams to score — 60%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Caernarfon Town | GAP Connah S Quay FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 44% | 46% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 78% | 59% |
| Both teams score | 66% | 56% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.4 | 4.4 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 22% | 46% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 3.4 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.