Xpect
CF Pachuca vs Toluca: prediction and statistics
Mexico · Liga MX · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: CF Pachuca · Toluca
Before kick-off
Liga MX, 21 November 2026: CF Pachuca are at home to Toluca. CF Pachuca go into the match 9th of 18 in the table, Toluca are 4th.
An uneven run for CF Pachuca: 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat from the last 5 games. Toluca are still looking for a win: 3 draws and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches.
At home (2024/25–2026/27) CF Pachuca have 20 wins, 11 draws and 14 defeats in 45 matches, averaging 1.5 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. Toluca travel well: 20 wins, 16 draws and 14 defeats in 50 away matches, with 1.5 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game.
Head to head there is no clear master over 25 meetings — wins: CF Pachuca 9, Toluca 9; draws: 7. The most recent meeting, on 10 May 2026, finished CF Pachuca 2:0 Toluca. On average these meetings produce 3.0 goals.
Form
CF Pachuca: last five matches — D-D-D-L-W.
- 6 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · at home
- 3 wins in a row · all competitions
Toluca: last five matches — D-L-L-D-D.
- 5 matches without a win · away
- 5 matches in a row both teams scored · away
- 5 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Table: CF Pachuca — 9, Toluca — 4 (of 18).
Home and away record
CF Pachuca at home and Toluca away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| CF Pachuca | Toluca | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 45 | 50 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 20-11-14 | 20-16-14 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
Head to head
25 meetings in our database: CF Pachuca won 9, 7 draws, Toluca won 9. Per match: 3.0 goals.
- 10.05.2026: CF Pachuca 2:0 Toluca
- 04.05.2026: Toluca 0:1 CF Pachuca
- 22.03.2026: CF Pachuca 1:1 Toluca
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- No clear favourite in our model: 39% – 25% – 36%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 51% of CF Pachuca’s home matches and 50% of Toluca’s away matches over three seasons.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.0 corners in the match: CF Pachuca 5.2, Toluca 4.9. In a typical match of this competition — 9.8. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 55% (typical match — 52%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 55%, typical match 52%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.6 yellow cards: CF Pachuca 2.4, Toluca 2.2; typical match of the competition — 4.5. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 49% (typical match — 47%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 67%, typical match 66%.
Result
Our model: CF Pachuca win 39%, draw 25%, Toluca win 36%. Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 59%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| CF Pachuca | Toluca | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 44% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 50% |
| Both teams score | 56% | 50% |
| Total corners per match | 10.2 | 10.2 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 55% | 58% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.8 | 4.4 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 48% | 50% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 9.9 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 4.6 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.