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Santos Laguna vs Leon: prediction and statistics
Mexico · Liga MX · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Santos Laguna · Leon
Before kick-off
Santos Laguna host Leon in Liga MX on 21 November 2026. Very little separates them in the standings — Santos Laguna are 6th, Leon 8th in a table of 18.
Santos Laguna arrive in excellent form: 5 wins in the last 5 matches. An uneven run for Leon: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from the last 5 games. Counted in points, Santos Laguna took 15 from that stretch and Leon only 5.
The home record of Santos Laguna (2024/25–2026/27) is balanced: 17 wins, 6 draws and 19 defeats in 42 matches, 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded per game. Away from home Leon have 10 wins, 10 draws and 23 defeats in 43 matches, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.8 per game.
The 21 previous meetings are fairly balanced — Santos Laguna 8, Leon 8, draws 5. Last time out (22 February 2026) it ended Leon 2:1 Santos Laguna. On average these meetings produce 3.3 goals.
Form
Santos Laguna: last five matches — W-W-W-W-W.
- 6 matches unbeaten · at home
- 5 wins in a row · at home
- 4 matches in a row without both teams scoring · at home
Leon: last five matches — L-D-D-W-L.
- 3 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · away
- 3 matches without a win · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
Table: Santos Laguna — 6, Leon — 8 (of 18).
Home and away record
Santos Laguna at home and Leon away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Santos Laguna | Leon | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 42 | 43 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 17-6-19 | 10-10-23 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.3 | 1.8 |
Head to head
21 meetings in our database: Santos Laguna won 8, 5 draws, Leon won 8. Per match: 3.3 goals.
- 22.02.2026: Leon 2:1 Santos Laguna
- 18.10.2025: Santos Laguna 2:0 Leon
- 09.03.2025: Santos Laguna 2:1 Leon
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Our model sees an open game: Santos Laguna 42%, draw 25%, Leon 33%.
- Santos Laguna should win the corner count: 6.7 expected against 3.6 for Leon.
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 45% of Santos Laguna home games and 58% of Leon away games.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.3 corners in the match: Santos Laguna 6.7, Leon 3.6. In a typical match of this competition — 9.8. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 58% (typical match — 52%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 58%, typical match 52%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.5 yellow cards: Santos Laguna 2.3, Leon 2.2; typical match of the competition — 4.5. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 47% (typical match — 47%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 53%, typical match 53%.
Result
Our model: Santos Laguna win 42%, draw 25%, Leon win 33%. Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 57%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Santos Laguna | Leon | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 40% | 23% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 58% |
| Both teams score | 41% | 67% |
| Total corners per match | 11.2 | 10.2 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 62% | 56% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.0 | 4.3 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 55% | 44% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 10.2 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 4.1 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.