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Cobreloa vs D. Puerto Montt: prediction and statistics
Chile · Primera B · 15 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Cobreloa · D. Puerto Montt
Before kick-off
Primera B, 15 November 2026: Cobreloa are at home to D. Puerto Montt. Cobreloa sit 1st in the 16-team table while D. Puerto Montt are 11th, so 10 places separate the two sides.
Recent results of Cobreloa are mostly positive — 3 wins and 2 defeats from 5 games. D. Puerto Montt are still looking for a win: 1 draw and 4 defeats in the last 5 matches. On points from those games the gap is clear: 9 for Cobreloa against 1 for D. Puerto Montt.
Cobreloa are hard to beat on their own ground — 21 wins, 7 draws and 4 defeats in 32 home matches (2024–2026), with 2.3 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per game. The away record of D. Puerto Montt: 3 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats in 14 matches, with 0.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded on average.
This fixture often ends level: 7 of the 12 meetings in the Xpect database were draws. The most recent meeting, on 6 June 2026, finished D. Puerto Montt 1:1 Cobreloa. On average these meetings produce 1.5 goals.
Form
Cobreloa: last five matches — L-W-L-W-W.
- 7 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
D. Puerto Montt: last five matches — L-L-L-D-L.
- 8 matches without a win · away
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · away
Table: Cobreloa — 1, D. Puerto Montt — 11 (of 16).
Home and away record
Cobreloa at home and D. Puerto Montt away, 2024–2026.
| Cobreloa | D. Puerto Montt | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 32 | 14 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 21-7-4 | 3-4-7 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.3 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 1.4 |
Head to head
12 meetings in our database: Cobreloa won 4, 7 draws, D. Puerto Montt won 1. Per match: 1.5 goals.
- 06.06.2026: D. Puerto Montt 1:1 Cobreloa
- 23.07.2023: Cobreloa 1:0 D. Puerto Montt
- 06.03.2023: D. Puerto Montt 0:0 Cobreloa
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Cobreloa is the more likely winner in our model: 61%, draw 23%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 47% of Cobreloa’s home matches and 43% of D. Puerto Montt’s away matches over three seasons.
- Draws are common in this fixture: 7 of 12 meetings.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.2 yellow cards: Cobreloa 2.4, D. Puerto Montt 2.8; typical match of the competition — 5.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 59% (typical match — 61%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 76%, typical match 77%.
Result
Our model: Cobreloa win 61%, draw 23%, D. Puerto Montt win 16%. Over 2.5 goals — 47%, both teams to score — 45%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Cobreloa | D. Puerto Montt | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 66% | 21% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 43% |
| Both teams score | 63% | 43% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.3 | 4.1 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 63% | 43% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 3.8 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.