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San Marcos de Arica vs San Luis: prediction and statistics
Chile · Primera B · 15 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: San Marcos de Arica · San Luis
Before kick-off
San Marcos de Arica host San Luis in Primera B on 15 November 2026. In the standings San Marcos de Arica are 6th and San Luis 2nd out of 16 teams. San Luis are part of the leading group.
San Marcos de Arica have blown hot and cold: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches. Few sides are in better shape than San Luis right now — 5 wins from the last 5 games. Counted in points, San Luis took 15 from that stretch and San Marcos de Arica only 7.
The home record of San Marcos de Arica (2024–2026) is balanced: 19 wins, 13 draws and 14 defeats in 46 matches, 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded per game. Away from home San Luis have 15 wins, 11 draws and 18 defeats in 44 matches, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.6 per game.
The 11 previous meetings are fairly balanced — San Marcos de Arica 6, San Luis 3, draws 2. Last time out (6 June 2026) it ended San Luis 1:0 San Marcos de Arica. On average these meetings produce 2.2 goals.
Form
San Marcos de Arica: last five matches — L-L-W-W-D.
- 3 matches unbeaten · at home
San Luis: last five matches — W-W-W-W-W.
- 8 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 6 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · away
- 5 wins in a row · away
Table: San Marcos de Arica — 6, San Luis — 2 (of 16).
Home and away record
San Marcos de Arica at home and San Luis away, 2024–2026.
| San Marcos de Arica | San Luis | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 46 | 44 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 19-13-14 | 15-11-18 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 1.6 |
Head to head
11 meetings in our database: San Marcos de Arica won 6, 2 draws, San Luis won 3. Per match: 2.2 goals.
- 06.06.2026: San Luis 1:0 San Marcos de Arica
- 05.10.2025: San Luis 1:1 San Marcos de Arica
- 24.05.2025: San Marcos de Arica 2:1 San Luis
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 41% of San Marcos de Arica home games and 50% of San Luis away games.
- Our model sees an open game: San Marcos de Arica 30%, draw 26%, San Luis 43%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 4.9 yellow cards: San Marcos de Arica 2.4, San Luis 2.5; typical match of the competition — 5.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 54% (typical match — 61%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 72%, typical match 77%.
Result
Our model: San Marcos de Arica win 30%, draw 26%, San Luis win 43%. Over 2.5 goals — 47%, both teams to score — 52%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| San Marcos de Arica | San Luis | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 41% | 34% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 50% |
| Both teams score | 50% | 52% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 6.0 | 5.3 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 74% | 57% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 6.5 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.