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Magallanes vs Antofagasta: prediction and statistics
Chile · Primera B · 15 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Magallanes · Antofagasta
Before kick-off
Primera B, 15 November 2026: Magallanes are at home to Antofagasta. They are neighbours in the table: Magallanes are 5th and Antofagasta 4th of 16.
Recent results of Magallanes are mostly positive — 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from 5 games. Antofagasta have blown hot and cold: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches. On points from those games the gap is clear: 10 for Magallanes against 5 for Antofagasta.
At home (2024–2026) Magallanes have 21 wins, 12 draws and 12 defeats in 45 matches, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. The away record of Antofagasta: 11 wins, 17 draws and 18 defeats in 46 matches, with 1.1 goals scored and 1.3 conceded on average.
Head to head there is no clear master over 5 meetings — wins: Magallanes 2, Antofagasta 2; draws: 1. The most recent meeting, on 7 June 2026, finished Antofagasta 0:0 Magallanes. On average these meetings produce 2.0 goals.
Form
Magallanes: last five matches — W-D-W-W-L.
- 5 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · at home
- 5 matches in a row without both teams scoring · at home
Antofagasta: last five matches — W-L-D-D-L.
- 6 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
- 4 matches without a win · away
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Table: Magallanes — 5, Antofagasta — 4 (of 16).
Home and away record
Magallanes at home and Antofagasta away, 2024–2026.
| Magallanes | Antofagasta | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 45 | 46 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 21-12-12 | 11-17-18 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 1.3 |
Head to head
5 meetings in our database: Magallanes won 2, 1 draws, Antofagasta won 2. Per match: 2.0 goals.
- 07.06.2026: Antofagasta 0:0 Magallanes
- 26.10.2025: Magallanes 1:0 Antofagasta
- 15.06.2025: Antofagasta 5:0 Magallanes
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Antofagasta is the more likely winner in our model: 54%, draw 23%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 44% of Magallanes’s home matches and 48% of Antofagasta’s away matches over three seasons.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 4.9 yellow cards: Magallanes 2.6, Antofagasta 2.3; typical match of the competition — 5.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 55% (typical match — 61%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 73%, typical match 77%.
Result
Our model: Magallanes win 23%, draw 23%, Antofagasta win 54%. Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 54%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Magallanes | Antofagasta | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 47% | 24% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 48% |
| Both teams score | 47% | 50% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.3 | 4.8 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 62% | 56% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 6.0 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.