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Nasaf vs Mash'al: prediction and statistics
Uzbekistan · Super League · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Before kick-off
Nasaf host Mash'al in Super League on 21 November 2026. In the table there is clear daylight between them: Nasaf are 4th of 16, Mash'al 16th — a gap of 12 places. Mash'al are fighting at the wrong end of the table.
Nasaf have been solid lately: 3 wins and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches. The last 5 games brought Mash'al no victory — 5 defeats. Counted in points, Nasaf took 9 from that stretch and Mash'al only 0.
Home advantage matters here: Nasaf have 24 wins, 11 draws and 6 defeats in 41 home matches (2024–2026), scoring 1.6 and conceding 0.7 per game. Mash'al find it hard on the road: 4 wins, 1 draw and 23 defeats in 28 away matches, 0.6 goals scored and 2.2 conceded per game.
History favours Nasaf — 11 wins from 18 meetings with Mash'al. Last time out (22 July 2026) it ended Mash'al 1:1 Nasaf. On average these meetings produce 2.2 goals.
Form
Nasaf: last five matches — W-W-L-W-L.
- 6 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
- 3 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Mash'al: last five matches — L-L-L-L-L.
- 15 matches without a win · all competitions
- 14 losses in a row · away
- 8 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
Table: Nasaf — 4, Mash'al — 16 (of 16).
Home and away record
Nasaf at home and Mash'al away, 2024–2026.
| Nasaf | Mash'al | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 41 | 28 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 24-11-6 | 4-1-23 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.7 | 2.2 |
Head to head
18 meetings in our database: Nasaf won 11, 4 draws, Mash'al won 3. Per match: 2.2 goals.
- 22.07.2026: Mash'al 1:1 Nasaf
- 08.11.2025: Nasaf 1:2 Mash'al
- 20.06.2025: Mash'al 1:3 Nasaf
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Nasaf has won 11 of the last 18 meetings with Mash'al.
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 46% of Nasaf home games and 64% of Mash'al away games.
- Our model makes Nasaf the favourite at 81%; a draw is 15%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.1 yellow cards: Nasaf 1.5, Mash'al 1.7; typical match of the competition — 3.8. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 21% (typical match — 34%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 62%, typical match 47%.
Result
Our model: Nasaf win 81%, draw 15%, Mash'al win 4%. Over 2.5 goals — 45%, both teams to score — 23%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Nasaf | Mash'al | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 59% | 14% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 64% |
| Both teams score | 42% | 36% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.0 | 2.6 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 20% | 11% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 1.3 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.