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Xorazm vs Buxoro: prediction and statistics
Uzbekistan · Super League · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Before kick-off
Super League, 21 November 2026: Xorazm are at home to Buxoro. Buxoro sit 7th in the 16-team table while Xorazm are 13th, so 6 places separate the two sides.
The last 5 games brought Xorazm no victory — 1 draw and 4 defeats. Buxoro have blown hot and cold: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches.
Xorazm have not made their ground a fortress: 7 wins, 7 draws and 14 defeats in 28 home matches (2024–2026), 1.0 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game. Trips have rarely paid off for Buxoro — 5 wins, 10 draws and 15 defeats in 30 away matches, scoring 0.9 and conceding 1.7 on average.
Head to head there is no clear master over 8 meetings — wins: Xorazm 2, Buxoro 3; draws: 3. The most recent meeting, on 11 March 2026, finished Buxoro 1:1 Xorazm. On average these meetings produce 2.3 goals.
Form
Xorazm: last five matches — L-D-L-L-L.
- 5 matches without a win · at home
- 3 losses in a row · at home
Buxoro: last five matches — D-L-L-W-D.
- 6 matches in a row both teams scored · away
- 3 matches without a win · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
Table: Xorazm — 13, Buxoro — 7 (of 16).
Home and away record
Xorazm at home and Buxoro away, 2024–2026.
| Xorazm | Buxoro | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 28 | 30 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 7-7-14 | 5-10-15 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.3 | 1.7 |
Head to head
8 meetings in our database: Xorazm won 2, 3 draws, Buxoro won 3. Per match: 2.3 goals.
- 11.03.2026: Buxoro 1:1 Xorazm
- 10.12.2025: Buxoro 1:2 Xorazm
- 13.08.2025: Buxoro 1:1 Xorazm
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- No clear favourite in our model: 31% – 28% – 41%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 43% of Xorazm’s home matches and 47% of Buxoro’s away matches over three seasons.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.6 yellow cards: Xorazm 1.6, Buxoro 1.9; typical match of the competition — 3.8. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 29% (typical match — 34%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 52%, typical match 47%.
Result
Our model: Xorazm win 31%, draw 28%, Buxoro win 41%. Over 2.5 goals — 42%, both teams to score — 48%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Xorazm | Buxoro | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 25% | 17% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 47% |
| Both teams score | 43% | 57% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.2 | 3.3 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 32% | 27% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 2.7 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.