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Newcastle United vs Arsenal: prediction and statistics
England · Premier League · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Newcastle United · Arsenal
Before kick-off
Premier League, 21 November 2026: Newcastle United are at home to Arsenal. Arsenal sit 1st in the 20-team table while Newcastle United are 12th, so 11 places separate the two sides.
An uneven run for Newcastle United: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from the last 5 games. Arsenal arrive in excellent form: 3 wins and 2 draws in the last 5 matches.
At home (2024/25–2026/27) Newcastle United have 23 wins, 6 draws and 14 defeats in 43 matches, averaging 1.9 goals scored and 1.3 conceded. Arsenal travel well: 24 wins, 13 draws and 6 defeats in 43 away matches, with 1.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game.
Head to head there is no clear master over 66 meetings — wins: Newcastle United 15, Arsenal 39; draws: 12. The most recent meeting, on 25 April 2026, finished Arsenal 1:0 Newcastle United. On average these meetings produce 2.4 goals.
Form
Newcastle United: last five matches — W-D-W-L-L.
- 3 matches without a win · all competitions
Arsenal: last five matches — W-D-D-W-W.
- 9 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 wins in a row · all competitions
Table: Newcastle United — 12, Arsenal — 1 (of 20).
Home and away record
Newcastle United at home and Arsenal away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Newcastle United | Arsenal | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 43 | 43 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 23-6-14 | 24-13-6 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.3 | 0.8 |
Head to head
66 meetings in our database: Newcastle United won 15, 12 draws, Arsenal won 39. Per match: 2.4 goals.
- 25.04.2026: Arsenal 1:0 Newcastle United
- 28.09.2025: Newcastle United 1:2 Arsenal
- 27.07.2025: Arsenal 3:2 Newcastle United
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Arsenal is the more likely winner in our model: 61%, draw 22%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 70% of Newcastle United’s home matches and 40% of Arsenal’s away matches over three seasons.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 9.8 corners in the match: Newcastle United 4.8, Arsenal 5.0. In a typical match of this competition — 10.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 51% (typical match — 59%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 61%, typical match 53%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.2 yellow cards: Newcastle United 2.3, Arsenal 1.9; typical match of the competition — 3.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 42% (typical match — 31%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 61%, typical match 50%.
Result
Our model: Newcastle United win 17%, draw 22%, Arsenal win 61%. Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 49%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Newcastle United | Arsenal | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 53% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams score | 61% | 49% |
| Total corners per match | 11.3 | 9.3 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 65% | 51% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.0 | 3.8 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 58% | 35% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 11.1 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 3.5 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.