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Aston Villa vs Sunderland: prediction and statistics
England · Premier League · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Aston Villa · Sunderland
Before kick-off
Premier League, 21 November 2026: Aston Villa are at home to Sunderland. Aston Villa sit 10th in the 20-team table while Sunderland are 19th, so 9 places separate the two sides. Sunderland are in the bottom three.
Few sides are in better shape than Aston Villa right now — 3 wins and 2 draws from the last 5 games. Results have gone against Sunderland recently — 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from the last 5 games. On points from those games the gap is clear: 11 for Aston Villa against 4 for Sunderland.
Aston Villa are hard to beat on their own ground — 24 wins, 11 draws and 8 defeats in 43 home matches (2024/25–2026/27), with 1.7 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per game. The away record of Sunderland: 5 wins, 7 draws and 12 defeats in 24 matches, with 1.0 goals scored and 1.7 conceded on average.
Head to head there is no clear master over 34 meetings — wins: Aston Villa 14, Sunderland 7; draws: 13. The most recent meeting, on 19 April 2026, finished Aston Villa 4:3 Sunderland. On average these meetings produce 2.2 goals.
Form
Aston Villa: last five matches — D-W-W-W-D.
- 5 matches unbeaten · at home
- 4 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · at home
- 4 matches without a win · all competitions
Sunderland: last five matches — L-W-L-D-L.
- 7 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · all competitions
- 3 matches without a win · away
Table: Aston Villa — 10, Sunderland — 19 (of 20).
Home and away record
Aston Villa at home and Sunderland away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Aston Villa | Sunderland | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 43 | 24 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 24-11-8 | 5-7-12 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.7 |
Head to head
34 meetings in our database: Aston Villa won 14, 13 draws, Sunderland won 7. Per match: 2.2 goals.
- 19.04.2026: Aston Villa 4:3 Sunderland
- 21.09.2025: Sunderland 1:1 Aston Villa
- 06.03.2018: Sunderland 0:3 Aston Villa
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Aston Villa is the more likely winner in our model: 68%, draw 18%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 58% of Aston Villa’s home matches and 46% of Sunderland’s away matches over three seasons.
- Our model expects more corners from Aston Villa: 6.0 against 4.0 for Sunderland.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.0 corners in the match: Aston Villa 6.0, Sunderland 4.0. In a typical match of this competition — 10.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 54% (typical match — 59%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 58%, typical match 53%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.2 yellow cards: Aston Villa 1.7, Sunderland 2.5; typical match of the competition — 3.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 41% (typical match — 31%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 60%, typical match 50%.
Result
Our model: Aston Villa win 68%, draw 18%, Sunderland win 14%. Over 2.5 goals — 63%, both teams to score — 55%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Aston Villa | Sunderland | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 56% | 21% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 46% |
| Both teams score | 65% | 54% |
| Total corners per match | 10.4 | 8.8 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 61% | 42% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.5 | 3.8 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 44% | 38% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 11.1 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 3.6 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.