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Manchester City vs Fulham: prediction and statistics
England · Premier League · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Manchester City · Fulham
Before kick-off
Manchester City host Fulham in Premier League on 21 November 2026. In the table there is clear daylight between them: Manchester City are 3rd of 20, Fulham 15th — a gap of 12 places. Manchester City are in the top three.
Manchester City have blown hot and cold: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches. Recent results of Fulham are mostly positive — 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from 5 games. Measured in points the two runs are close — 7 and 8.
Home advantage matters here: Manchester City have 31 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats in 43 home matches (2024/25–2026/27), scoring 2.3 and conceding 1.0 per game. Away from home Fulham have 13 wins, 11 draws and 19 defeats in 43 matches, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.4 per game.
History favours Manchester City — 26 wins from 39 meetings with Fulham. Last time out (11 February 2026) it ended Manchester City 3:0 Fulham. On average these meetings produce 3.5 goals.
Key facts
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 72% of Manchester City home games and 47% of Fulham away games.
- Our model makes Manchester City the favourite at 68%; a draw is 20%.
- Manchester City should win the corner count: 6.7 expected against 3.9 for Fulham.
- Manchester City has won 26 of the last 39 meetings with Fulham.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.6 corners in the match: Manchester City 6.7, Fulham 3.9. In a typical match of this competition — 10.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 61% (typical match — 59%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 61%, typical match 59%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.1 yellow cards: Manchester City 1.6, Fulham 2.5; typical match of the competition — 3.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 38% (typical match — 31%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 58%, typical match 50%.
Result
Our model: Manchester City win 68%, draw 20%, Fulham win 13%. Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 46%.
Form
Manchester City: last five matches — L-W-W-D-L.
- 13 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
- 3 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · at home
Fulham: last five matches — D-W-L-W-D.
- 5 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 5 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 3 matches without a win · all competitions
Table: Manchester City — 3, Fulham — 15 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Manchester City at home and Fulham away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Manchester City | Fulham | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 43 | 43 |
| Win rate | 72% | 30% |
| Goals scored per match | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% | 47% |
| Both teams score | 56% | 58% |
| Total corners per match | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 63% | 54% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.8 | 3.7 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 40% | 37% |
Head to head
39 meetings in our database: Manchester City won 26, 9 draws, Fulham won 4. Per match: 3.5 goals, 10.0 corners, 2.4 yellow cards.
- 11.02.2026: Manchester City 3:0 Fulham
- 02.12.2025: Fulham 4:5 Manchester City
- 25.05.2025: Fulham 0:2 Manchester City
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Manchester City vs Fulham?
Our model expects 10.6 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 61%.
How many yellow cards in Manchester City vs Fulham?
Our model expects 4.1 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 38%.
Who is more likely to win Manchester City vs Fulham?
Our model: Manchester City 68%, draw 20%, Fulham 13%.