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Chelsea vs Leeds United: prediction and statistics
England · Premier League · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Chelsea · Leeds United
Before kick-off
Premier League, 21 November 2026: Chelsea are at home to Leeds United. Chelsea go into the match 5th of 20 in the table, Leeds United are 9th.
Recent results of Chelsea are mostly positive — 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from 5 games. Leeds United are still looking for a win: 2 draws and 3 defeats in the last 5 matches. On points from those games the gap is clear: 10 for Chelsea against 2 for Leeds United.
At home (2024/25–2026/27) Chelsea have 22 wins, 11 draws and 10 defeats in 43 matches, averaging 1.7 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. Trips have rarely paid off for Leeds United — 3 wins, 11 draws and 10 defeats in 24 away matches, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.7 on average.
Head to head there is no clear master over 34 meetings — wins: Chelsea 15, Leeds United 10; draws: 9. The most recent meeting, on 9 September 2026, finished Chelsea 6:3 Leeds United. On average these meetings produce 2.7 goals.
Form
Chelsea: last five matches — W-D-W-L-W.
- 5 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
Leeds United: last five matches — D-L-L-D-L.
- 5 matches without a win · away
- 4 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · away
- 4 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
Table: Chelsea — 5, Leeds United — 9 (of 20).
Home and away record
Chelsea at home and Leeds United away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Chelsea | Leeds United | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 43 | 24 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 22-11-10 | 3-11-10 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 1.7 |
Head to head
34 meetings in our database: Chelsea won 15, 9 draws, Leeds United won 10. Per match: 2.7 goals.
- 09.09.2026: Chelsea 6:3 Leeds United
- 26.04.2026: Chelsea 1:0 Leeds United
- 10.02.2026: Chelsea 2:2 Leeds United
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- No clear favourite in our model: 44% – 24% – 33%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 58% of Chelsea’s home matches and 46% of Leeds United’s away matches over three seasons.
- Our model expects more corners from Chelsea: 6.2 against 4.2 for Leeds United.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.4 corners in the match: Chelsea 6.2, Leeds United 4.2. In a typical match of this competition — 10.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 59% (typical match — 59%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 54%, typical match 53%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.3 yellow cards: Chelsea 2.0, Leeds United 2.2; typical match of the competition — 3.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 42% (typical match — 31%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 62%, typical match 50%.
Result
Our model: Chelsea win 44%, draw 24%, Leeds United win 33%. Over 2.5 goals — 60%, both teams to score — 62%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Chelsea | Leeds United | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 51% | 13% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 46% |
| Both teams score | 61% | 58% |
| Total corners per match | 10.5 | 9.0 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 61% | 46% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.7 | 3.4 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 47% | 29% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 9.5 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 3.7 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.