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AFC Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest: prediction and statistics
England · Premier League · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: AFC Bournemouth · Nottingham Forest
Before kick-off
Premier League, 21 November 2026: AFC Bournemouth are at home to Nottingham Forest. AFC Bournemouth sit 7th in the 20-team table while Nottingham Forest are 16th, so 9 places separate the two sides.
Few sides are in better shape than AFC Bournemouth right now — 5 wins from the last 5 games. Nottingham Forest have blown hot and cold: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches. On points from those games the gap is clear: 15 for AFC Bournemouth against 7 for Nottingham Forest.
At home (2024/25–2026/27) AFC Bournemouth have 17 wins, 16 draws and 10 defeats in 43 matches, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 0.9 conceded. The away record of Nottingham Forest: 18 wins, 8 draws and 17 defeats in 43 matches, with 1.5 goals scored and 1.6 conceded on average.
Head to head there is no clear master over 16 meetings — wins: AFC Bournemouth 8, Nottingham Forest 2; draws: 6. The most recent meeting, on 24 May 2026, finished Nottingham Forest 1:1 AFC Bournemouth. On average these meetings produce 2.8 goals.
Form
AFC Bournemouth: last five matches — W-W-W-W-W.
- 8 wins in a row · all competitions
- 8 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 6 matches in a row without both teams scoring · at home
Nottingham Forest: last five matches — W-W-L-D-L.
- 6 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 3 matches without a win · away
Table: AFC Bournemouth — 7, Nottingham Forest — 16 (of 20).
Home and away record
AFC Bournemouth at home and Nottingham Forest away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| AFC Bournemouth | Nottingham Forest | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 43 | 43 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 17-16-10 | 18-8-17 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 1.6 |
Head to head
16 meetings in our database: AFC Bournemouth won 8, 6 draws, Nottingham Forest won 2. Per match: 2.8 goals.
- 24.05.2026: Nottingham Forest 1:1 AFC Bournemouth
- 26.10.2025: AFC Bournemouth 2:0 Nottingham Forest
- 25.01.2025: AFC Bournemouth 5:0 Nottingham Forest
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 37% of AFC Bournemouth’s home matches and 65% of Nottingham Forest’s away matches over three seasons.
- Our model expects more corners from AFC Bournemouth: 5.8 against 4.2 for Nottingham Forest.
- AFC Bournemouth is the more likely winner in our model: 62%, draw 21%.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.0 corners in the match: AFC Bournemouth 5.8, Nottingham Forest 4.2. In a typical match of this competition — 10.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 54% (typical match — 59%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 59%, typical match 53%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.6 yellow cards: AFC Bournemouth 1.8, Nottingham Forest 1.8; typical match of the competition — 3.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 30% (typical match — 31%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 51%, typical match 50%.
Result
Our model: AFC Bournemouth win 62%, draw 21%, Nottingham Forest win 17%. Over 2.5 goals — 58%, both teams to score — 54%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| AFC Bournemouth | Nottingham Forest | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 40% | 42% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 65% |
| Both teams score | 51% | 56% |
| Total corners per match | 10.4 | 10.2 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 58% | 51% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.4 | 4.7 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 42% | 47% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 10.5 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 3.1 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.