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Sao Paulo vs Fluminense: prediction and statistics
Brazil · Serie A · 20 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Sao Paulo · Fluminense
Before kick-off
Sao Paulo host Fluminense in Serie A on 20 November 2026. In the table there is clear daylight between them: Fluminense are 4th of 20, Sao Paulo 10th — a gap of 6 places.
Sao Paulo have been solid lately: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in the last 5 matches. Recent results of Fluminense are mostly positive — 3 wins and 2 defeats from 5 games. Measured in points the two runs are close — 10 and 9.
Home advantage matters here: Sao Paulo have 32 wins, 11 draws and 12 defeats in 55 home matches (2024–2026), scoring 1.5 and conceding 0.9 per game. Away from home Fluminense have 13 wins, 14 draws and 28 defeats in 55 matches, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.4 per game.
The 35 previous meetings are fairly balanced — Sao Paulo 11, Fluminense 16, draws 8. Last time out (16 May 2026) it ended Fluminense 2:1 Sao Paulo. On average these meetings produce 2.9 goals.
Form
Sao Paulo: last five matches — W-L-W-W-D.
- 3 matches unbeaten · at home
- 3 matches without a win · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · all competitions
Fluminense: last five matches — W-L-W-L-W.
- 6 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Table: Sao Paulo — 10, Fluminense — 4 (of 20).
Home and away record
Sao Paulo at home and Fluminense away, 2024–2026.
| Sao Paulo | Fluminense | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 55 | 55 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 32-11-12 | 13-14-28 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 1.4 |
Head to head
35 meetings in our database: Sao Paulo won 11, 8 draws, Fluminense won 16. Per match: 2.9 goals.
- 16.05.2026: Fluminense 2:1 Sao Paulo
- 27.11.2025: Fluminense 6:0 Sao Paulo
- 27.07.2025: Sao Paulo 3:1 Fluminense
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Our model sees an open game: Sao Paulo 35%, draw 28%, Fluminense 38%.
- Sao Paulo should win the corner count: 7.0 expected against 3.4 for Fluminense.
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 49% of Sao Paulo home games and 36% of Fluminense away games.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.4 corners in the match: Sao Paulo 7.0, Fluminense 3.4. In a typical match of this competition — 10.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 60% (typical match — 59%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 60%, typical match 59%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 4.8 yellow cards: Sao Paulo 2.4, Fluminense 2.4; typical match of the competition — 4.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 52% (typical match — 54%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 70%, typical match 72%.
Result
Our model: Sao Paulo win 35%, draw 28%, Fluminense win 38%. Over 2.5 goals — 43%, both teams to score — 49%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Sao Paulo | Fluminense | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 58% | 24% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 36% |
| Both teams score | 51% | 47% |
| Total corners per match | 10.2 | 10.1 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 51% | 62% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.2 | 5.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 56% | 51% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 8.5 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 4.8 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.