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Sarmiento Junin vs Barracas Central: prediction and statistics
Argentina · Liga Profesional · 19 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Sarmiento Junin · Barracas Central
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 8.7 corners in the match: Sarmiento Junin 4.6, Barracas Central 4.1. In a typical match of this competition — 9.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 38% (typical match — 47%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 62%, typical match 53%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.0 yellow cards: Sarmiento Junin 2.4, Barracas Central 2.5; typical match of the competition — 5.0. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 55% (typical match — 57%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 73%, typical match 74%.
Result
Our model: Sarmiento Junin win 43%, draw 29%, Barracas Central win 28%. Over 2.5 goals — 37%, both teams to score — 43%.
Form
Sarmiento Junin: last five matches — L-W-W-W-D.
- 4 matches unbeaten · at home
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · at home
- 3 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · at home
Barracas Central: last five matches — L-L-D-D-W.
- 3 matches unbeaten · away
- 3 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · away
Table: Sarmiento Junin — 17, Barracas Central — 15 (of 30).
Team statistics for three seasons
Sarmiento Junin at home and Barracas Central away, 2024–2026.
| Sarmiento Junin | Barracas Central | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 43 | 46 |
| Win rate | 35% | 30% |
| Goals scored per match | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 26% | 26% |
| Both teams score | 42% | 39% |
| Total corners per match | 9.8 | 8.4 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 58% | 28% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.0 | 5.4 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 67% | 56% |
Head to head
11 meetings in our database: Sarmiento Junin won 4, 5 draws, Barracas Central won 2. Per match: 2.5 goals, 8.4 corners, 5.9 yellow cards.
- 02.04.2026: Barracas Central 1:2 Sarmiento Junin
- 20.09.2025: Barracas Central 0:1 Sarmiento Junin
- 09.03.2025: Sarmiento Junin 1:1 Barracas Central
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Sarmiento Junin vs Barracas Central?
Our model expects 8.7 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 38%.
How many yellow cards in Sarmiento Junin vs Barracas Central?
Our model expects 5.0 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 55%.
Who is more likely to win Sarmiento Junin vs Barracas Central?
Our model: Sarmiento Junin 43%, draw 29%, Barracas Central 28%.