Xpect
Verl vs Rot-Weiß Essen: prediction and statistics
Germany · 3. Liga · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Verl · Rot-Weiß Essen
Before kick-off
3. Liga, 21 November 2026: Verl are at home to Rot-Weiß Essen. Rot-Weiß Essen sit 3rd in the 20-team table while Verl are 17th, so 14 places separate the two sides. Rot-Weiß Essen are in the top three.
An uneven run for Verl: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from the last 5 games. Rot-Weiß Essen have been solid lately: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in the last 5 matches. In points that is almost level: 7 against 8.
At home (2024/25–2026/27) Verl have 21 wins, 13 draws and 10 defeats in 44 matches, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.3 conceded. The away record of Rot-Weiß Essen: 17 wins, 11 draws and 16 defeats in 44 matches, with 1.6 goals scored and 1.9 conceded on average. Goals are rarely in short supply in these samples: 3.3 per game in home matches of Verl and 3.4 in away matches of Rot-Weiß Essen.
This fixture often ends level: 5 of the 10 meetings in the Xpect database were draws. The most recent meeting, on 9 May 2026, finished Rot-Weiß Essen 1:0 Verl. On average these meetings produce 3.4 goals.
Form
Verl: last five matches — L-W-W-D-L.
- 9 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · at home
- 8 matches without a win · all competitions
- 7 matches in a row both teams scored · at home
Rot-Weiß Essen: last five matches — W-D-D-L-W.
- 3 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · all competitions
Table: Verl — 17, Rot-Weiß Essen — 3 (of 20).
Home and away record
Verl at home and Rot-Weiß Essen away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Verl | Rot-Weiß Essen | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 44 | 44 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 21-13-10 | 17-11-16 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.0 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.3 | 1.9 |
Head to head
10 meetings in our database: Verl won 4, 5 draws, Rot-Weiß Essen won 1. Per match: 3.4 goals.
- 09.05.2026: Rot-Weiß Essen 1:0 Verl
- 13.12.2025: Verl 0:0 Rot-Weiß Essen
- 28.03.2025: Verl 3:0 Rot-Weiß Essen
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Draws are common in this fixture: 5 of 10 meetings.
- Our model expects more corners from Verl: 6.6 against 3.7 for Rot-Weiß Essen.
- No clear favourite in our model: 34% – 23% – 43%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 73% of Verl’s home matches and 61% of Rot-Weiß Essen’s away matches over three seasons.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.3 corners in the match: Verl 6.6, Rot-Weiß Essen 3.7. In a typical match of this competition — 10.1. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 58% (typical match — 56%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 58%, typical match 56%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.1 yellow cards: Verl 1.9, Rot-Weiß Essen 2.3; typical match of the competition — 4.5. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 40% (typical match — 48%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 60%, typical match 52%.
Result
Our model: Verl win 34%, draw 23%, Rot-Weiß Essen win 43%. Over 2.5 goals — 65%, both teams to score — 66%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Verl | Rot-Weiß Essen | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 48% | 39% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 73% | 61% |
| Both teams score | 66% | 64% |
| Total corners per match | 9.5 | 11.6 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 57% | 69% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.6 | 4.5 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 48% | 52% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 8.2 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 4.0 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.