Xpect
Águilas Doradas vs Independiente Medellin: prediction and statistics
Colombia · Primera A · 14 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Águilas Doradas · Independiente Medellin
Before kick-off
Águilas Doradas host Independiente Medellin in Primera A on 14 November 2026. Very little separates them in the standings — Águilas Doradas are 11th, Independiente Medellin 9th in a table of 20.
Águilas Doradas arrive in excellent form: 3 wins and 2 draws in the last 5 matches. An uneven run for Independiente Medellin: 2 wins and 3 defeats from the last 5 games. Counted in points, Águilas Doradas took 11 from that stretch and Independiente Medellin only 6.
The home record of Águilas Doradas (2024–2026) is balanced: 21 wins, 18 draws and 18 defeats in 57 matches, 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded per game. Away from home Independiente Medellin have 24 wins, 17 draws and 23 defeats in 64 matches, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.4 per game.
The 23 previous meetings are fairly balanced — Águilas Doradas 8, Independiente Medellin 10, draws 5. Last time out (3 May 2026) it ended Independiente Medellin 1:2 Águilas Doradas. On average these meetings produce 2.3 goals.
Form
Águilas Doradas: last five matches — D-D-W-W-W.
- 11 matches unbeaten · at home
- 11 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
Independiente Medellin: last five matches — W-L-L-L-W.
- 5 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · away
- 4 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · all competitions
Table: Águilas Doradas — 11, Independiente Medellin — 9 (of 20).
Home and away record
Águilas Doradas at home and Independiente Medellin away, 2024–2026.
| Águilas Doradas | Independiente Medellin | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 57 | 64 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 21-18-18 | 24-17-23 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 1.4 |
Head to head
23 meetings in our database: Águilas Doradas won 8, 5 draws, Independiente Medellin won 10. Per match: 2.3 goals.
- 03.05.2026: Independiente Medellin 1:2 Águilas Doradas
- 08.10.2025: Águilas Doradas 2:1 Independiente Medellin
- 30.03.2025: Independiente Medellin 0:0 Águilas Doradas
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 47% of Águilas Doradas home games and 52% of Independiente Medellin away games.
- Our model sees an open game: Águilas Doradas 42%, draw 26%, Independiente Medellin 33%.
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.0 corners in the match: Águilas Doradas 4.3, Independiente Medellin 4.6. In a typical match of this competition — 9.1. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 41% (typical match — 43%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 59%, typical match 57%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.7 yellow cards: Águilas Doradas 2.4, Independiente Medellin 3.2; typical match of the competition — 5.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 67% (typical match — 67%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 82%, typical match 82%.
Result
Our model: Águilas Doradas win 42%, draw 26%, Independiente Medellin win 33%. Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 55%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Águilas Doradas | Independiente Medellin | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 37% | 38% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 52% |
| Both teams score | 60% | 56% |
| Total corners per match | 9.1 | 8.9 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 42% | 38% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.4 | 6.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 63% | 72% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 9.1 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 6.2 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.