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Millonarios vs Alianza Valledupar: prediction and statistics
Colombia · Primera A · 14 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Millonarios · Alianza Valledupar
Before kick-off
Primera A, 14 November 2026: Millonarios are at home to Alianza Valledupar. Millonarios sit 10th in the 20-team table while Alianza Valledupar are 17th, so 7 places separate the two sides.
No defeats for Millonarios in the last 5 games (2 wins and 3 draws). Alianza Valledupar have blown hot and cold: 2 wins and 3 defeats in the last 5 matches.
At home (2024–2026) Millonarios have 35 wins, 20 draws and 11 defeats in 66 matches, averaging 1.5 goals scored and 0.7 conceded. Trips have rarely paid off for Alianza Valledupar — 11 wins, 13 draws and 33 defeats in 57 away matches, scoring 0.7 and conceding 1.5 on average. Both samples are low on goals: 2.2 per game in home matches of Millonarios and 2.3 in away matches of Alianza Valledupar.
Head to head there is no clear master over 22 meetings — wins: Millonarios 13, Alianza Valledupar 5; draws: 4. The most recent meeting, on 3 May 2026, finished Alianza Valledupar 2:2 Millonarios. On average these meetings produce 2.7 goals.
Form
Millonarios: last five matches — D-W-W-D-D.
- 7 matches unbeaten · at home
- 3 matches without a win · all competitions
Alianza Valledupar: last five matches — W-L-W-L-L.
- 3 losses in a row · all competitions
- 3 matches without a win · all competitions
Table: Millonarios — 10, Alianza Valledupar — 17 (of 20).
Home and away record
Millonarios at home and Alianza Valledupar away, 2024–2026.
| Millonarios | Alianza Valledupar | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 66 | 57 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 35-20-11 | 11-13-33 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.7 | 1.5 |
Head to head
22 meetings in our database: Millonarios won 13, 4 draws, Alianza Valledupar won 5. Per match: 2.7 goals.
- 03.05.2026: Alianza Valledupar 2:2 Millonarios
- 13.09.2025: Alianza Valledupar 3:0 Millonarios
- 30.03.2025: Millonarios 2:0 Alianza Valledupar
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 41% of Millonarios’s home matches and 42% of Alianza Valledupar’s away matches over three seasons.
- Our model expects more corners from Millonarios: 6.9 against 2.7 for Alianza Valledupar.
- Millonarios is the more likely winner in our model: 68%, draw 21%.
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.6 corners in the match: Millonarios 6.9, Alianza Valledupar 2.7. In a typical match of this competition — 9.1. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 50% (typical match — 43%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 8.5 — 63%, typical match 56%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 6.0 yellow cards: Millonarios 2.6, Alianza Valledupar 3.4; typical match of the competition — 5.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 72% (typical match — 67%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 4.5 — 72%, typical match 67%.
Result
Our model: Millonarios win 68%, draw 21%, Alianza Valledupar win 11%. Over 2.5 goals — 45%, both teams to score — 38%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Millonarios | Alianza Valledupar | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 53% | 19% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 42% |
| Both teams score | 41% | 39% |
| Total corners per match | 9.3 | 8.8 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 51% | 38% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 6.2 | 4.8 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 74% | 49% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 9.6 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 5.7 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.