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Deportivo Cali vs Deportes Tolima: prediction and statistics
Colombia · Primera A · 14 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Deportivo Cali · Deportes Tolima
Before kick-off
Deportivo Cali host Deportes Tolima in Primera A on 14 November 2026. Very little separates them in the standings — Deportivo Cali are 6th, Deportes Tolima 4th in a table of 20.
Deportivo Cali arrive in excellent form: 4 wins and 1 draw in the last 5 matches. An uneven run for Deportes Tolima: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from the last 5 games. Counted in points, Deportivo Cali took 13 from that stretch and Deportes Tolima only 5.
The home record of Deportivo Cali (2024–2026) is balanced: 24 wins, 17 draws and 16 defeats in 57 matches, 1.2 scored and 0.9 conceded per game. Away from home Deportes Tolima have 29 wins, 18 draws and 26 defeats in 73 matches, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.1 per game.
The 34 previous meetings are fairly balanced — Deportivo Cali 8, Deportes Tolima 15, draws 11. Last time out (3 May 2026) it ended Deportes Tolima 1:1 Deportivo Cali. On average these meetings produce 2.5 goals.
Form
Deportivo Cali: last five matches — W-W-W-D-W.
- 14 matches unbeaten · at home
- 8 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · at home
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
Deportes Tolima: last five matches — D-D-L-L-W.
- 5 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · away
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · away
Table: Deportivo Cali — 6, Deportes Tolima — 4 (of 20).
Home and away record
Deportivo Cali at home and Deportes Tolima away, 2024–2026.
| Deportivo Cali | Deportes Tolima | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 57 | 73 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 24-17-16 | 29-18-26 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 1.1 |
Head to head
34 meetings in our database: Deportivo Cali won 8, 11 draws, Deportes Tolima won 15. Per match: 2.5 goals.
- 03.05.2026: Deportes Tolima 1:1 Deportivo Cali
- 25.10.2025: Deportes Tolima 2:1 Deportivo Cali
- 03.05.2025: Deportivo Cali 1:1 Deportes Tolima
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 30% of Deportivo Cali home games and 37% of Deportes Tolima away games.
- Our model makes Deportivo Cali the favourite at 55%; a draw is 26%.
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 8.9 corners in the match: Deportivo Cali 4.1, Deportes Tolima 4.8. In a typical match of this competition — 9.1. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 40% (typical match — 43%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 60%, typical match 57%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.4 yellow cards: Deportivo Cali 2.3, Deportes Tolima 3.1; typical match of the competition — 5.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 63% (typical match — 67%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 79%, typical match 82%.
Result
Our model: Deportivo Cali win 55%, draw 26%, Deportes Tolima win 19%. Over 2.5 goals — 41%, both teams to score — 43%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Deportivo Cali | Deportes Tolima | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 42% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 37% |
| Both teams score | 40% | 48% |
| Total corners per match | 8.8 | 9.0 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 34% | 39% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 6.3 | 5.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 70% | 57% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 11.0 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 5.9 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.