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Bucaramanga vs Fortaleza FC: prediction and statistics
Colombia · Primera A · 14 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Bucaramanga · Fortaleza FC
Before kick-off
Bucaramanga host Fortaleza FC in Primera A on 14 November 2026. In the table there is clear daylight between them: Bucaramanga are 8th of 20, Fortaleza FC 18th — a gap of 10 places. Fortaleza FC are fighting at the wrong end of the table.
Bucaramanga are unbeaten in the last 5 matches: 2 wins and 3 draws. The last 5 games brought Fortaleza FC no victory — 2 draws and 3 defeats. Counted in points, Bucaramanga took 9 from that stretch and Fortaleza FC only 2.
The home record of Bucaramanga (2024–2026) is balanced: 32 wins, 21 draws and 11 defeats in 64 matches, 1.5 scored and 0.8 conceded per game. Fortaleza FC find it hard on the road: 10 wins, 22 draws and 28 defeats in 60 away matches, 0.9 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game. Both samples are low on goals: 2.3 per game in home matches of Bucaramanga and 2.3 in away matches of Fortaleza FC.
The 9 previous meetings are fairly balanced — Bucaramanga 5, Fortaleza FC 3, draws 1. Last time out (3 May 2026) it ended Fortaleza FC 2:1 Bucaramanga. On average these meetings produce 2.3 goals.
Form
Bucaramanga: last five matches — W-D-D-W-D.
- 9 matches unbeaten · at home
- 5 matches in a row both teams scored · at home
Fortaleza FC: last five matches — D-D-L-L-L.
- 22 matches without a win · away
- 3 losses in a row · away
- 3 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · away
Table: Bucaramanga — 8, Fortaleza FC — 18 (of 20).
Home and away record
Bucaramanga at home and Fortaleza FC away, 2024–2026.
| Bucaramanga | Fortaleza FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 64 | 60 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 32-21-11 | 10-22-28 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.8 | 1.4 |
Head to head
9 meetings in our database: Bucaramanga won 5, 1 draws, Fortaleza FC won 3. Per match: 2.3 goals.
- 03.05.2026: Fortaleza FC 2:1 Bucaramanga
- 30.11.2025: Fortaleza FC 0:2 Bucaramanga
- 26.11.2025: Bucaramanga 1:2 Fortaleza FC
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 41% of Bucaramanga home games and 40% of Fortaleza FC away games.
- Our model makes Bucaramanga the favourite at 69%; a draw is 19%.
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 8.3 corners in the match: Bucaramanga 4.0, Fortaleza FC 4.4. In a typical match of this competition — 9.1. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 33% (typical match — 43%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 8.5 — 55%, typical match 44%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.2 yellow cards: Bucaramanga 2.5, Fortaleza FC 2.7; typical match of the competition — 5.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 59% (typical match — 67%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 76%, typical match 82%.
Result
Our model: Bucaramanga win 69%, draw 19%, Fortaleza FC win 11%. Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 44%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Bucaramanga | Fortaleza FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 50% | 17% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 40% |
| Both teams score | 44% | 52% |
| Total corners per match | 8.7 | 8.4 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 35% | 35% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 6.2 | 5.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 73% | 60% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 9.8 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 4.3 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.