Xpect
Llaneros vs Chico: prediction and statistics
Colombia · Primera A · 13 November 2026 · kick-off
Before kick-off
Llaneros host Chico in Primera A on 13 November 2026. Very little separates them in the standings — Llaneros are 14th, Chico 16th in a table of 20.
Llaneros have been solid lately: 3 wins and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches. The last 5 games brought Chico no victory — 2 draws and 3 defeats. Counted in points, Llaneros took 9 from that stretch and Chico only 2.
The home record of Llaneros (2024–2026) is balanced: 14 wins, 10 draws and 14 defeats in 38 matches, 1.0 scored and 1.1 conceded per game. Chico find it hard on the road: 4 wins, 9 draws and 44 defeats in 57 away matches, 0.5 goals scored and 2.3 conceded per game.
The 21 previous meetings are fairly balanced — Llaneros 6, Chico 8, draws 7. Last time out (27 May 2026) it ended Chico 0:1 Llaneros. On average these meetings produce 2.3 goals.
Form
Llaneros: last five matches — W-L-W-L-W.
Chico: last five matches — D-L-D-L-L.
- 21 matches without a win · away
- 4 matches in a row without both teams scoring · away
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Table: Llaneros — 14, Chico — 16 (of 20).
Home and away record
Llaneros at home and Chico away, 2024–2026.
| Llaneros | Chico | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 38 | 57 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 14-10-14 | 4-9-44 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 2.3 |
Head to head
21 meetings in our database: Llaneros won 6, 7 draws, Chico won 8. Per match: 2.3 goals.
- 27.05.2026: Chico 0:1 Llaneros
- 02.05.2026: Chico 3:0 Llaneros
- 23.07.2025: Llaneros 2:1 Chico
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Llaneros should win the corner count: 5.6 expected against 3.9 for Chico.
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 40% of Llaneros home games and 53% of Chico away games.
- Our model makes Llaneros the favourite at 55%; a draw is 25%.
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.5 corners in the match: Llaneros 5.6, Chico 3.9. In a typical match of this competition — 9.1. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 48% (typical match — 43%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 8.5 — 61%, typical match 56%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.5 yellow cards: Llaneros 2.7, Chico 2.7; typical match of the competition — 5.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 64% (typical match — 67%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 79%, typical match 82%.
Result
Our model: Llaneros win 55%, draw 25%, Chico win 20%. Over 2.5 goals — 43%, both teams to score — 45%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Llaneros | Chico | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 37% | 7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 53% |
| Both teams score | 42% | 33% |
| Total corners per match | 8.9 | 8.3 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 42% | 39% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.9 | 5.1 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 55% | 54% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 7.0 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 2.4 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.