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Cucuta vs Jaguares: prediction and statistics
Colombia · Primera A · 14 November 2026 · kick-off
Before kick-off
Primera A, 14 November 2026: Cucuta are at home to Jaguares. Cucuta go into the match 15th of 20 in the table, Jaguares are 19th. Jaguares are in the bottom three.
Few sides are in better shape than Cucuta right now — 4 wins and 1 defeat from the last 5 games. Jaguares are still looking for a win: 5 defeats in the last 5 matches. On points from those games the gap is clear: 12 for Cucuta against 0 for Jaguares.
At home (2024–2026) Cucuta have 8 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats in 18 matches, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. Trips have rarely paid off for Jaguares — 2 wins, 8 draws and 27 defeats in 37 away matches, scoring 0.6 and conceding 1.9 on average.
Head to head there is no clear master over 8 meetings — wins: Cucuta 3, Jaguares 2; draws: 3. The most recent meeting, on 2 May 2026, finished Jaguares 2:0 Cucuta. On average these meetings produce 2.8 goals.
Form
Cucuta: last five matches — W-W-W-L-W.
- 4 matches in a row without both teams scoring · at home
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · at home
Jaguares: last five matches — L-L-L-L-L.
- 20 matches without a win · away
- 6 losses in a row · away
- 4 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
Table: Cucuta — 15, Jaguares — 19 (of 20).
Home and away record
Cucuta at home and Jaguares away, 2024–2026.
| Cucuta | Jaguares | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 18 | 37 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 8-5-5 | 2-8-27 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 1.9 |
Head to head
8 meetings in our database: Cucuta won 3, 3 draws, Jaguares won 2. Per match: 2.8 goals.
- 02.05.2026: Jaguares 2:0 Cucuta
- 15.11.2025: Jaguares 1:2 Cucuta
- 11.11.2025: Cucuta 2:2 Jaguares
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 44% of Cucuta’s home matches and 46% of Jaguares’s away matches over three seasons.
- Our model expects more corners from Cucuta: 5.7 against 3.8 for Jaguares.
- Cucuta is the more likely winner in our model: 56%, draw 24%.
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.5 corners in the match: Cucuta 5.7, Jaguares 3.8. In a typical match of this competition — 9.1. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 48% (typical match — 43%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 8.5 — 61%, typical match 56%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.8 yellow cards: Cucuta 2.7, Jaguares 3.1; typical match of the competition — 5.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 68% (typical match — 67%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 4.5 — 68%, typical match 67%.
Result
Our model: Cucuta win 56%, draw 24%, Jaguares win 19%. Over 2.5 goals — 46%, both teams to score — 47%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Cucuta | Jaguares | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 44% | 5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 46% |
| Both teams score | 56% | 43% |
| Total corners per match | 9.5 | 8.8 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 41% | 37% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 6.3 | 5.8 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 67% | 76% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 12.8 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 5.6 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.