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Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas: prediction and statistics
Colombia · Primera A · 14 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Atletico Nacional · Once Caldas
Before kick-off
Primera A, 14 November 2026: Atletico Nacional are at home to Once Caldas. Atletico Nacional sit 1st in the 20-team table while Once Caldas are 7th, so 6 places separate the two sides.
Few sides are in better shape than Atletico Nacional right now — 5 wins from the last 5 games. Once Caldas have been solid lately: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in the last 5 matches. On points from those games the gap is clear: 15 for Atletico Nacional against 8 for Once Caldas.
Atletico Nacional are hard to beat on their own ground — 47 wins, 15 draws and 7 defeats in 69 home matches (2024–2026), with 2.1 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game. The away record of Once Caldas: 16 wins, 27 draws and 23 defeats in 66 matches, with 0.9 goals scored and 1.1 conceded on average.
Head to head there is no clear master over 27 meetings — wins: Atletico Nacional 16, Once Caldas 5; draws: 6. The most recent meeting, on 11 November 2026, finished Once Caldas 1:1 Atletico Nacional. On average these meetings produce 1.8 goals.
Form
Atletico Nacional: last five matches — W-W-W-W-W.
- 13 matches unbeaten · at home
- 5 wins in a row · at home
- 4 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
Once Caldas: last five matches — L-D-W-D-W.
- 9 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 9 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
Table: Atletico Nacional — 1, Once Caldas — 7 (of 20).
Home and away record
Atletico Nacional at home and Once Caldas away, 2024–2026.
| Atletico Nacional | Once Caldas | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 69 | 66 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 47-15-7 | 16-27-23 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.8 | 1.1 |
Head to head
27 meetings in our database: Atletico Nacional won 16, 6 draws, Once Caldas won 5. Per match: 1.8 goals.
- 11.11.2026: Once Caldas 1:1 Atletico Nacional
- 01.05.2026: Once Caldas 1:0 Atletico Nacional
- 22.10.2025: Atletico Nacional 2:0 Once Caldas
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Atletico Nacional is the more likely winner in our model: 55%, draw 25%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 54% of Atletico Nacional’s home matches and 32% of Once Caldas’s away matches over three seasons.
- Our model expects more corners from Atletico Nacional: 5.3 against 4.1 for Once Caldas.
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.3 corners in the match: Atletico Nacional 5.3, Once Caldas 4.1. In a typical match of this competition — 9.1. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 46% (typical match — 43%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 8.5 — 59%, typical match 56%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.4 yellow cards: Atletico Nacional 2.8, Once Caldas 2.6; typical match of the competition — 5.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 62% (typical match — 67%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 78%, typical match 82%.
Result
Our model: Atletico Nacional win 55%, draw 25%, Once Caldas win 20%. Over 2.5 goals — 46%, both teams to score — 47%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Atletico Nacional | Once Caldas | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 68% | 24% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 32% |
| Both teams score | 55% | 52% |
| Total corners per match | 9.5 | 9.1 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 55% | 43% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.2 | 6.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 61% | 70% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 8.2 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 4.7 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.