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Arenas Getxo vs Mérida AD: prediction and statistics
Spain · Primera Federación – Grupo 1 · 18 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Arenas Getxo · Mérida AD
Result
Our model: Arenas Getxo win 32%, draw 25%, Mérida AD win 43%. Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 55%.
Form
Arenas Getxo: last five matches — D-W-D-L-L.
- 9 matches without a win · all competitions
Mérida AD: last five matches — L-L-L-L-W.
Table: Arenas Getxo — 20, Mérida AD — 12 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Arenas Getxo at home and Mérida AD away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Arenas Getxo | Mérida AD | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 22 | 22 |
| Win rate | 55% | 23% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 46% |
| Both teams score | 59% | 55% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | — | — |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | — | — |
Head to head
2 meetings in our database: Arenas Getxo won 1, 0 draws, Mérida AD won 1. Per match: 2.5 goals.
- 24.04.2026: Arenas Getxo 2:0 Mérida AD
- 05.10.2025: Mérida AD 3:0 Arenas Getxo
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
Who is more likely to win Arenas Getxo vs Mérida AD?
Our model: Arenas Getxo 32%, draw 25%, Mérida AD 43%.