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Barakaldo vs Mirandes: prediction and statistics
Spain · Primera Federación – Grupo 1 · 17 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Barakaldo · Mirandes
Result
Our model: Barakaldo win 36%, draw 27%, Mirandes win 37%. Over 2.5 goals — 45%, both teams to score — 50%.
Form
Barakaldo: last five matches — D-D-W-D-D.
- 14 matches unbeaten · at home
- 4 matches without a win · all competitions
Mirandes: last five matches — L-L-W-D-L.
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
Table: Barakaldo — 17, Mirandes — 6 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Barakaldo at home and Mirandes away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Barakaldo | Mirandes | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 42 | 4 |
| Win rate | 52% | 25% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 50% |
| Both teams score | 50% | 50% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | — | — |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | — | — |
Head to head
1 meetings in our database: Barakaldo won 0, 1 draws, Mirandes won 0. Per match: 2.0 goals.
- 28.07.2024: Barakaldo 1:1 Mirandes
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
Who is more likely to win Barakaldo vs Mirandes?
Our model: Barakaldo 36%, draw 27%, Mirandes 37%.