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Real Avilés vs UD Ourense: prediction and statistics
Spain · Primera Federación – Grupo 1 · 18 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Real Avilés · UD Ourense
Result
Our model: Real Avilés win 51%, draw 25%, UD Ourense win 24%. Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 51%.
Form
Real Avilés: last five matches — L-W-L-W-L.
UD Ourense: last five matches — D-W-L-L-D.
- 3 matches without a win · away
- 3 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
Table: Real Avilés — 13, UD Ourense — 19 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Real Avilés at home and UD Ourense away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Real Avilés | UD Ourense | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 22 | 3 |
| Win rate | 27% | 0% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 33% |
| Both teams score | 64% | 67% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | — | — |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | — | — |
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
Who is more likely to win Real Avilés vs UD Ourense?
Our model: Real Avilés 51%, draw 25%, UD Ourense 24%.