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Lugo vs Deportivo La Coruña II: prediction and statistics
Spain · Primera Federación – Grupo 1 · 17 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Lugo · Deportivo La Coruña II
Result
Our model: Lugo win 38%, draw 28%, Deportivo La Coruña II win 34%. Over 2.5 goals — 40%, both teams to score — 47%.
Form
Lugo: last five matches — W-W-W-W-W.
- 9 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 5 wins in a row · at home
Deportivo La Coruña II: last five matches — L-D-L-D-L.
- 5 matches without a win · away
Table: Lugo — 1, Deportivo La Coruña II — 14 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Lugo at home and Deportivo La Coruña II away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Lugo | Deportivo La Coruña II | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 41 | 3 |
| Win rate | 46% | 0% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 67% |
| Both teams score | 39% | 67% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | — | — |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | — | — |
Head to head
1 meetings in our database: Lugo won 1, 0 draws, Deportivo La Coruña II won 0. Per match: 3.0 goals.
- 31.07.2024: Lugo 3:0 Deportivo La Coruña II
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
Who is more likely to win Lugo vs Deportivo La Coruña II?
Our model: Lugo 38%, draw 28%, Deportivo La Coruña II 34%.