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Zamora vs Ponferradina: prediction and statistics
Spain · Primera Federación – Grupo 1 · 17 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Zamora · Ponferradina
Result
Our model: Zamora win 45%, draw 29%, Ponferradina win 26%. Over 2.5 goals — 37%, both teams to score — 43%.
Form
Zamora: last five matches — W-D-L-L-W.
- 3 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
Ponferradina: last five matches — L-W-W-L-D.
- 4 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
Table: Zamora — 7, Ponferradina — 9 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Zamora at home and Ponferradina away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Zamora | Ponferradina | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 42 | 41 |
| Win rate | 50% | 37% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 37% |
| Both teams score | 45% | 37% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | — | — |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | — | — |
Head to head
6 meetings in our database: Zamora won 1, 2 draws, Ponferradina won 3. Per match: 2.8 goals.
- 02.05.2026: Zamora 3:0 Ponferradina
- 19.10.2025: Ponferradina 2:0 Zamora
- 12.04.2025: Zamora 1:2 Ponferradina
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
Who is more likely to win Zamora vs Ponferradina?
Our model: Zamora 45%, draw 29%, Ponferradina 26%.