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Arsenal vs Neman: prediction and statistics
Belarus · Premier League · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Before kick-off
Arsenal host Neman in Premier League on 21 November 2026. In the table there is clear daylight between them: Neman are 5th of 16, Arsenal 12th — a gap of 7 places.
Arsenal have blown hot and cold: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches. Recent results of Neman are mostly positive — 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from 5 games. Counted in points, Neman took 10 from that stretch and Arsenal only 5.
The home record of Arsenal (2024–2026) is balanced: 14 wins, 13 draws and 17 defeats in 44 matches, 0.9 scored and 1.2 conceded per game. On the road Neman are a dangerous side — 22 wins, 7 draws and 15 defeats in 44 away matches, 1.4 scored and 0.9 conceded per game.
History favours Neman — 7 wins from 10 meetings with Arsenal. Last time out (26 July 2026) it ended Arsenal 2:2 Neman. On average these meetings produce 2.6 goals.
Form
Arsenal: last five matches — L-D-L-D-W.
- 6 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 6 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
Neman: last five matches — D-W-W-L-W.
- 6 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · away
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · away
Table: Arsenal — 12, Neman — 5 (of 16).
Home and away record
Arsenal at home and Neman away, 2024–2026.
| Arsenal | Neman | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 44 | 44 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 14-13-17 | 22-7-15 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 0.9 |
Head to head
10 meetings in our database: Arsenal won 1, 2 draws, Neman won 7. Per match: 2.6 goals.
- 26.07.2026: Arsenal 2:2 Neman
- 26.07.2026: Arsenal 2:3 Neman
- 04.07.2026: Neman 0:1 Arsenal
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 36% of Arsenal home games and 41% of Neman away games.
- Our model makes Neman the favourite at 61%; a draw is 23%.
- Neman should win the corner count: 5.8 expected against 3.9 for Arsenal.
- Neman has won 7 of the last 10 meetings with Arsenal.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 9.7 corners in the match: Arsenal 3.9, Neman 5.8. In a typical match of this competition — 10.2. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 50% (typical match — 57%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 62%, typical match 56%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.3 yellow cards: Arsenal 1.6, Neman 1.6; typical match of the competition — 3.8. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 24% (typical match — 32%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 58%, typical match 48%.
Result
Our model: Arsenal win 16%, draw 23%, Neman win 61%. Over 2.5 goals — 46%, both teams to score — 44%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Arsenal | Neman | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 32% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 41% |
| Both teams score | 39% | 36% |
| Total corners per match | 9.4 | 10.0 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 30% | 67% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.0 | 2.8 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 21% | 9% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 5.0 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 3.4 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.