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ML Vitebsk vs Slavia Mozyr: prediction and statistics

Belarus · Premier League · 21 November 2026 · kick-off

Team stats: ML Vitebsk · Slavia Mozyr

Before kick-off

Premier League, 21 November 2026: ML Vitebsk are at home to Slavia Mozyr. ML Vitebsk sit 1st in the 16-team table while Slavia Mozyr are 10th, so 9 places separate the two sides.

Few sides are in better shape than ML Vitebsk right now — 4 wins and 1 draw from the last 5 games. Results have gone against Slavia Mozyr recently — 1 win and 4 defeats from the last 5 games. On points from those games the gap is clear: 13 for ML Vitebsk against 3 for Slavia Mozyr.

ML Vitebsk are hard to beat on their own ground — 17 wins, 9 draws and 3 defeats in 29 home matches (2024–2026), with 1.9 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per game. The away record of Slavia Mozyr: 16 wins, 11 draws and 17 defeats in 44 matches, with 1.3 goals scored and 1.4 conceded on average.

Head to head, ML Vitebsk have the upper hand: 3 wins in 5 meetings with Slavia Mozyr in the Xpect database. The most recent meeting, on 1 July 2026, finished Slavia Mozyr 2:4 ML Vitebsk. On average these meetings produce 3.4 goals.

Form

ML Vitebsk: last five matches — D-W-W-W-W.

Slavia Mozyr: last five matches — L-L-L-W-L.

Table: ML Vitebsk — 1, Slavia Mozyr — 10 (of 16).

Home and away record

ML Vitebsk at home and Slavia Mozyr away, 2024–2026.

ML VitebskSlavia Mozyr
Matches2944
Wins · draws · losses17-9-316-11-17
Goals scored per match1.91.3
Goals conceded per match0.61.4

Head to head

5 meetings in our database: ML Vitebsk won 3, 1 draws, Slavia Mozyr won 1. Per match: 3.4 goals.

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Key facts

  • ML Vitebsk is the more likely winner in our model: 70%, draw 18%.
  • Over 2.5 goals happened in 41% of ML Vitebsk’s home matches and 50% of Slavia Mozyr’s away matches over three seasons.
  • Head to head favours ML Vitebsk: 3 wins in 5 meetings with Slavia Mozyr.
  • Our model expects more corners from ML Vitebsk: 6.4 against 3.9 for Slavia Mozyr.

Corners

57%

Corners over 9.5

Our model expects 10.2 corners in the match: ML Vitebsk 6.4, Slavia Mozyr 3.9. In a typical match of this competition — 10.2. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 57% (typical match — 57%).

This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 57%, typical match 57%.

Yellow cards

65%

Yellow cards under 4.5

Our model expects 3.9 yellow cards: ML Vitebsk 1.8, Slavia Mozyr 2.1; typical match of the competition — 3.8. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 36% (typical match — 32%).

This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 55%, typical match 52%.

Result

Our model: ML Vitebsk win 70%, draw 18%, Slavia Mozyr win 12%. Over 2.5 goals — 58%, both teams to score — 49%.

Team statistics for three seasons

ML VitebskSlavia Mozyr
Win rate59%36%
Over 2.5 goals41%50%
Both teams score45%55%
Total corners per match9.98.8
Over 9.5 corners50%38%
Total yellow cards per match2.93.2
Over 4.5 yellow cards17%27%

Head to head

Yellow cards in their meetings: 6.0 per match on average.

How we calculate

Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.

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