Xpect
FC Dnepr Mogilev vs FC Vitebsk: prediction and statistics
Belarus · Premier League · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: FC Dnepr Mogilev · FC Vitebsk
Before kick-off
Premier League, 21 November 2026: FC Dnepr Mogilev are at home to FC Vitebsk. FC Vitebsk sit 7th in the 16-team table while FC Dnepr Mogilev are 15th, so 8 places separate the two sides. FC Dnepr Mogilev are fighting at the wrong end of the table.
Recent results of FC Dnepr Mogilev are mostly positive — 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from 5 games. FC Vitebsk have blown hot and cold: 2 wins and 3 defeats in the last 5 matches.
FC Dnepr Mogilev have not made their ground a fortress: 4 wins, 11 draws and 14 defeats in 29 home matches (2024–2026), 1.0 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game. The away record of FC Vitebsk: 15 wins, 8 draws and 21 defeats in 44 matches, with 1.1 goals scored and 1.3 conceded on average.
Head to head, FC Vitebsk have the upper hand: 12 wins in 20 meetings with FC Dnepr Mogilev in the Xpect database. The most recent meeting, on 4 July 2026, finished FC Vitebsk 1:0 FC Dnepr Mogilev. On average these meetings produce 2.5 goals.
Form
FC Dnepr Mogilev: last five matches — D-D-L-W-W.
- 6 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · at home
- 4 matches in a row both teams scored · at home
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
FC Vitebsk: last five matches — W-L-L-W-L.
- 3 losses in a row · all competitions
- 3 matches without a win · all competitions
Table: FC Dnepr Mogilev — 15, FC Vitebsk — 7 (of 16).
Home and away record
FC Dnepr Mogilev at home and FC Vitebsk away, 2024–2026.
| FC Dnepr Mogilev | FC Vitebsk | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 29 | 44 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 4-11-14 | 15-8-21 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.6 | 1.3 |
Head to head
20 meetings in our database: FC Dnepr Mogilev won 5, 3 draws, FC Vitebsk won 12. Per match: 2.5 goals.
- 04.07.2026: FC Vitebsk 1:0 FC Dnepr Mogilev
- 28.02.2026: FC Dnepr Mogilev 2:4 FC Vitebsk
- 12.07.2025: FC Dnepr Mogilev 0:1 FC Vitebsk
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 48% of FC Dnepr Mogilev’s home matches and 48% of FC Vitebsk’s away matches over three seasons.
- Head to head favours FC Vitebsk: 12 wins in 20 meetings with FC Dnepr Mogilev.
- Our model expects more corners from FC Vitebsk: 5.6 against 4.5 for FC Dnepr Mogilev.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.2 corners in the match: FC Dnepr Mogilev 4.5, FC Vitebsk 5.6. In a typical match of this competition — 10.2. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 56% (typical match — 57%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 56%, typical match 56%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.2 yellow cards: FC Dnepr Mogilev 1.8, FC Vitebsk 1.4; typical match of the competition — 3.8. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 22% (typical match — 32%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 61%, typical match 48%.
Result
Our model: FC Dnepr Mogilev win 27%, draw 27%, FC Vitebsk win 46%. Over 2.5 goals — 41%, both teams to score — 46%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| FC Dnepr Mogilev | FC Vitebsk | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 14% | 34% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 48% |
| Both teams score | 62% | 41% |
| Total corners per match | 11.4 | 8.5 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 78% | 50% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 2.9 | 3.1 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 10% | 21% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 1.8 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.