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Dinamo Brest vs Naftan: prediction and statistics
Belarus · Premier League · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Dinamo Brest · Naftan
Before kick-off
Dinamo Brest host Naftan in Premier League on 21 November 2026. In the table there is clear daylight between them: Dinamo Brest are 4th of 16, Naftan 16th — a gap of 12 places. Naftan are fighting at the wrong end of the table.
Dinamo Brest have been solid lately: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in the last 5 matches. Naftan are in a difficult spell: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in the last 5 matches. Counted in points, Dinamo Brest took 10 from that stretch and Naftan only 4.
The home record of Dinamo Brest (2024–2026) is balanced: 24 wins, 9 draws and 11 defeats in 44 matches, 2.0 scored and 1.0 conceded per game. Naftan find it hard on the road: 8 wins, 8 draws and 29 defeats in 45 away matches, 0.9 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game.
The 26 previous meetings are fairly balanced — Dinamo Brest 12, Naftan 6, draws 8. Last time out (3 July 2026) it ended Naftan 2:4 Dinamo Brest. On average these meetings produce 3.3 goals.
Form
Dinamo Brest: last five matches — L-W-W-D-W.
- 9 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
Naftan: last five matches — L-D-W-L-L.
- 4 losses in a row · all competitions
- 4 matches without a win · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
Table: Dinamo Brest — 4, Naftan — 16 (of 16).
Home and away record
Dinamo Brest at home and Naftan away, 2024–2026.
| Dinamo Brest | Naftan | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 44 | 45 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 24-9-11 | 8-8-29 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 2.0 |
Head to head
26 meetings in our database: Dinamo Brest won 12, 8 draws, Naftan won 6. Per match: 3.3 goals.
- 03.07.2026: Naftan 2:4 Dinamo Brest
- 10.08.2025: Dinamo Brest 2:0 Naftan
- 30.03.2025: Naftan 2:2 Dinamo Brest
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Our model makes Dinamo Brest the favourite at 85%; a draw is 11%.
- Dinamo Brest should win the corner count: 7.1 expected against 3.9 for Naftan.
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 61% of Dinamo Brest home games and 51% of Naftan away games.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 11.0 corners in the match: Dinamo Brest 7.1, Naftan 3.9. In a typical match of this competition — 10.2. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 66% (typical match — 57%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 10.5 — 54%, typical match 44%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.2 yellow cards: Dinamo Brest 1.4, Naftan 1.8; typical match of the competition — 3.8. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 21% (typical match — 32%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 61%, typical match 48%.
Result
Our model: Dinamo Brest win 85%, draw 11%, Naftan win 4%. Over 2.5 goals — 66%, both teams to score — 39%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Dinamo Brest | Naftan | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 55% | 18% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 51% |
| Both teams score | 50% | 42% |
| Total corners per match | 9.3 | 10.5 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 56% | 60% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 2.8 | 3.1 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 23% | 27% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 15.0 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 1.6 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.