Xpect
Baranovichi vs Belshina: prediction and statistics
Belarus · Premier League · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Baranovichi · Belshina
Before kick-off
Premier League, 21 November 2026: Baranovichi are at home to Belshina. Baranovichi go into the match 11th of 16 in the table, Belshina are 14th. Belshina are in the bottom three.
An uneven run for Baranovichi: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from the last 5 games. Results have gone against Belshina recently — 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from the last 5 games.
Baranovichi have not made their ground a fortress: 4 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats in 14 home matches (2024–2026), 1.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game. Trips have rarely paid off for Belshina — 1 win, 3 draws and 11 defeats in 15 away matches, scoring 0.5 and conceding 2.2 on average.
Head to head there is no clear master over 15 meetings — wins: Baranovichi 4, Belshina 8; draws: 3. The most recent meeting, on 5 July 2026, finished Belshina 1:1 Baranovichi. On average these meetings produce 3.3 goals.
Form
Baranovichi: last five matches — D-W-L-L-W.
- 5 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · at home
Belshina: last five matches — D-L-L-W-L.
- 3 losses in a row · all competitions
- 3 matches without a win · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Table: Baranovichi — 11, Belshina — 14 (of 16).
Home and away record
Baranovichi at home and Belshina away, 2024–2026.
| Baranovichi | Belshina | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 14 | 15 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 4-4-6 | 1-3-11 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.6 | 2.2 |
Head to head
15 meetings in our database: Baranovichi won 4, 3 draws, Belshina won 8. Per match: 3.3 goals.
- 05.07.2026: Belshina 1:1 Baranovichi
- 09.08.2025: Baranovichi 2:1 Belshina
- 14.05.2025: Belshina 2:1 Baranovichi
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 57% of Baranovichi’s home matches and 47% of Belshina’s away matches over three seasons.
- Our model expects more corners from Baranovichi: 5.9 against 4.5 for Belshina.
- Baranovichi is the more likely winner in our model: 51%, draw 23%.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.4 corners in the match: Baranovichi 5.9, Belshina 4.5. In a typical match of this competition — 10.2. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 59% (typical match — 57%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 59%, typical match 57%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.7 yellow cards: Baranovichi 1.8, Belshina 2.0; typical match of the competition — 3.8. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 32% (typical match — 32%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 68%, typical match 68%.
Result
Our model: Baranovichi win 51%, draw 23%, Belshina win 26%. Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 57%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Baranovichi | Belshina | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 29% | 7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 47% |
| Both teams score | 64% | 47% |
| Total corners per match | 9.6 | 11.6 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 57% | 75% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.9 | 3.5 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 36% | 33% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 3.1 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.