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Dinamo Minsk vs FC Minsk: prediction and statistics
Belarus · Premier League · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Dinamo Minsk · FC Minsk
Before kick-off
Dinamo Minsk host FC Minsk in Premier League on 21 November 2026. In the table there is clear daylight between them: Dinamo Minsk are 3rd of 16, FC Minsk 9th — a gap of 6 places. Dinamo Minsk are in the top three.
Dinamo Minsk arrive in excellent form: 4 wins and 1 defeat in the last 5 matches. FC Minsk are in a difficult spell: 1 win and 4 defeats in the last 5 matches. Counted in points, Dinamo Minsk took 12 from that stretch and FC Minsk only 3.
Home advantage matters here: Dinamo Minsk have 32 wins, 7 draws and 6 defeats in 45 home matches (2024–2026), scoring 2.0 and conceding 0.6 per game. Away from home FC Minsk have 16 wins, 9 draws and 19 defeats in 44 matches, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.6 per game.
History favours Dinamo Minsk — 24 wins from 33 meetings with FC Minsk. Last time out (2 July 2026) it ended FC Minsk 0:3 Dinamo Minsk. On average these meetings produce 2.3 goals.
Form
Dinamo Minsk: last five matches — W-W-W-W-L.
- 5 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · at home
FC Minsk: last five matches — L-W-L-L-L.
- 7 matches without a win · all competitions
- 5 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Table: Dinamo Minsk — 3, FC Minsk — 9 (of 16).
Home and away record
Dinamo Minsk at home and FC Minsk away, 2024–2026.
| Dinamo Minsk | FC Minsk | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 45 | 44 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 32-7-6 | 16-9-19 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.6 | 1.6 |
Head to head
33 meetings in our database: Dinamo Minsk won 24, 7 draws, FC Minsk won 2. Per match: 2.3 goals.
- 02.07.2026: FC Minsk 0:3 Dinamo Minsk
- 28.03.2026: Dinamo Minsk 1:0 FC Minsk
- 14.09.2025: FC Minsk 2:1 Dinamo Minsk
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Dinamo Minsk should win the corner count: 5.8 expected against 4.2 for FC Minsk.
- Dinamo Minsk has won 24 of the last 33 meetings with FC Minsk.
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 42% of Dinamo Minsk home games and 55% of FC Minsk away games.
- Our model makes Dinamo Minsk the favourite at 73%; a draw is 18%.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.0 corners in the match: Dinamo Minsk 5.8, FC Minsk 4.2. In a typical match of this competition — 10.2. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 54% (typical match — 57%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 59%, typical match 56%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.5 yellow cards: Dinamo Minsk 1.6, FC Minsk 1.9; typical match of the competition — 3.8. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 27% (typical match — 32%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 54%, typical match 48%.
Result
Our model: Dinamo Minsk win 73%, draw 18%, FC Minsk win 9%. Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 38%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Dinamo Minsk | FC Minsk | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 71% | 36% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 55% |
| Both teams score | 42% | 50% |
| Total corners per match | 10.9 | 9.6 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 78% | 44% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 2.7 | 2.5 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 16% | 11% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 10.1 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 1.7 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.