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FC Gomel vs Bate Borisov: prediction and statistics
Belarus · Premier League · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: FC Gomel · Bate Borisov
Before kick-off
Premier League, 21 November 2026: FC Gomel are at home to Bate Borisov. FC Gomel sit 6th in the 16-team table while Bate Borisov are 13th, so 7 places separate the two sides.
Recent results of FC Gomel are mostly positive — 3 wins and 2 defeats from 5 games. Results have gone against Bate Borisov recently — 1 win and 4 defeats from the last 5 games. On points from those games the gap is clear: 9 for FC Gomel against 3 for Bate Borisov.
At home (2024–2026) FC Gomel have 20 wins, 10 draws and 14 defeats in 44 matches, averaging 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. The away record of Bate Borisov: 11 wins, 11 draws and 22 defeats in 44 matches, with 0.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded on average.
Head to head there is no clear master over 32 meetings — wins: FC Gomel 7, Bate Borisov 17; draws: 8. The most recent meeting, on 2 July 2026, finished Bate Borisov 0:1 FC Gomel. On average these meetings produce 2.3 goals.
Form
FC Gomel: last five matches — W-W-L-L-W.
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
- 3 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · at home
Bate Borisov: last five matches — L-L-L-L-W.
Table: FC Gomel — 6, Bate Borisov — 13 (of 16).
Home and away record
FC Gomel at home and Bate Borisov away, 2024–2026.
| FC Gomel | Bate Borisov | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 44 | 44 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 20-10-14 | 11-11-22 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 1.2 |
Head to head
32 meetings in our database: FC Gomel won 7, 8 draws, Bate Borisov won 17. Per match: 2.3 goals.
- 02.07.2026: Bate Borisov 0:1 FC Gomel
- 22.08.2025: FC Gomel 2:3 Bate Borisov
- 12.04.2025: Bate Borisov 0:0 FC Gomel
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- FC Gomel is the more likely winner in our model: 53%, draw 26%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 43% of FC Gomel’s home matches and 30% of Bate Borisov’s away matches over three seasons.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.4 corners in the match: FC Gomel 4.9, Bate Borisov 5.5. In a typical match of this competition — 10.2. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 59% (typical match — 57%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 59%, typical match 57%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.0 yellow cards: FC Gomel 2.1, Bate Borisov 1.9; typical match of the competition — 3.8. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 37% (typical match — 32%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 56%, typical match 52%.
Result
Our model: FC Gomel win 53%, draw 26%, Bate Borisov win 21%. Over 2.5 goals — 42%, both teams to score — 44%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| FC Gomel | Bate Borisov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 45% | 25% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 30% |
| Both teams score | 48% | 32% |
| Total corners per match | 8.6 | 10.8 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 38% | 70% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 2.8 | 4.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 18% | 41% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 12.7 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 1.1 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.