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CA La Paz vs Tlaxcala: prediction and statistics
Mexico · Liga de Expansión · 17 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: CA La Paz · Tlaxcala
Result
Our model: CA La Paz win 68%, draw 18%, Tlaxcala win 14%. Over 2.5 goals — 64%, both teams to score — 56%.
Form
CA La Paz: last five matches — W-D-W-W-L.
- 7 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 5 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
Tlaxcala: last five matches — D-L-D-L-D.
- 17 matches without a win · away
- 3 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
Table: CA La Paz — 2, Tlaxcala — 10 (of 16).
Team statistics for three seasons
CA La Paz at home and Tlaxcala away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| CA La Paz | Tlaxcala | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 35 | 34 |
| Win rate | 37% | 9% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.5 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 59% |
| Both teams score | 66% | 56% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | — | — |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | — | — |
Head to head
8 meetings in our database: CA La Paz won 4, 3 draws, Tlaxcala won 1. Per match: 3.6 goals.
- 08.03.2026: CA La Paz 2:0 Tlaxcala
- 28.09.2025: Tlaxcala 3:3 CA La Paz
- 11.01.2025: CA La Paz 4:4 Tlaxcala
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
Who is more likely to win CA La Paz vs Tlaxcala?
Our model: CA La Paz 68%, draw 18%, Tlaxcala 14%.