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Piratas vs Tepatitlán: prediction and statistics
Mexico · Liga de Expansión · 18 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Piratas · Tepatitlán
Result
Our model: Piratas win 69%, draw 20%, Tepatitlán win 12%. Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 44%.
Form
Piratas: last five matches — W-L-W-W-W.
- 4 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 3 wins in a row · at home
- 3 matches unbeaten · at home
Tepatitlán: last five matches — L-L-L-L-L.
- 14 matches without a win · away
- 5 losses in a row · away
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · away
Table: Piratas — 7, Tepatitlán — 16 (of 16).
Team statistics for three seasons
Piratas at home and Tepatitlán away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Piratas | Tepatitlán | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 5 | 40 |
| Win rate | 80% | 15% |
| Goals scored per match | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.6 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams score | 40% | 53% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | — | — |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | — | — |
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
Who is more likely to win Piratas vs Tepatitlán?
Our model: Piratas 69%, draw 20%, Tepatitlán 12%.