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Tapatío vs Tepatitlán: prediction and statistics
Mexico · Liga de Expansión · 13 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Tapatío · Tepatitlán
Result
Our model: Tapatío win 67%, draw 19%, Tepatitlán win 14%. Over 2.5 goals — 63%, both teams to score — 55%.
Form
Tapatío: last five matches — W-W-L-W-L.
- 4 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · at home
Tepatitlán: last five matches — L-L-L-L-L.
- 14 matches without a win · away
- 5 losses in a row · away
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · away
Table: Tapatío — 11, Tepatitlán — 16 (of 16).
Team statistics for three seasons
Tapatío at home and Tepatitlán away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Tapatío | Tepatitlán | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 39 | 40 |
| Win rate | 56% | 15% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 40% |
| Both teams score | 51% | 53% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | — | — |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | — | — |
Head to head
14 meetings in our database: Tapatío won 3, 4 draws, Tepatitlán won 7. Per match: 2.2 goals.
- 24.01.2026: Tepatitlán 2:0 Tapatío
- 17.08.2025: Tapatío 1:3 Tepatitlán
- 15.02.2025: Tepatitlán 1:0 Tapatío
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
Who is more likely to win Tapatío vs Tepatitlán?
Our model: Tapatío 67%, draw 19%, Tepatitlán 14%.