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Leones Negros UDG vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca: prediction and statistics
Mexico · Liga de Expansión · 18 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Leones Negros UDG · Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Result
Our model: Leones Negros UDG win 77%, draw 15%, Alebrijes de Oaxaca win 8%. Over 2.5 goals — 63%, both teams to score — 47%.
Form
Leones Negros UDG: last five matches — L-W-D-D-W.
- 4 matches unbeaten · at home
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · at home
Alebrijes de Oaxaca: last five matches — W-L-L-L-L.
- 4 losses in a row · away
- 4 matches without a win · away
- 4 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · away
Table: Leones Negros UDG — 1, Alebrijes de Oaxaca — 13 (of 16).
Team statistics for three seasons
Leones Negros UDG at home and Alebrijes de Oaxaca away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Leones Negros UDG | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 40 | 34 |
| Win rate | 55% | 18% |
| Goals scored per match | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 2.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 77% |
| Both teams score | 63% | 50% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | — | — |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | — | — |
Head to head
22 meetings in our database: Leones Negros UDG won 5, 13 draws, Alebrijes de Oaxaca won 4. Per match: 2.4 goals.
- 28.03.2026: Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1:1 Leones Negros UDG
- 18.10.2025: Leones Negros UDG 0:1 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
- 16.03.2025: Leones Negros UDG 3:2 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
Who is more likely to win Leones Negros UDG vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?
Our model: Leones Negros UDG 77%, draw 15%, Alebrijes de Oaxaca 8%.