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Durango vs Tapatío: prediction and statistics
Mexico · Liga de Expansión · 18 October 2026 · kick-off
Result
Our model: Durango win 59%, draw 22%, Tapatío win 19%. Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 55%.
Form
Durango: last five matches — L-L-D-W-W.
- 4 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Tapatío: last five matches — L-W-D-L-L.
- 3 matches without a win · away
Table: Durango — 8, Tapatío — 11 (of 16).
Team statistics for three seasons
Durango at home and Tapatío away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Durango | Tapatío | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 5 | 38 |
| Win rate | 40% | 26% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 63% |
| Both teams score | 60% | 74% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | — | — |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | — | — |
Head to head
2 meetings in our database: Durango won 0, 0 draws, Tapatío won 2. Per match: 5.5 goals.
- 12.04.2023: Durango 2:5 Tapatío
- 30.06.2022: Tapatío 3:1 Durango
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
Who is more likely to win Durango vs Tapatío?
Our model: Durango 59%, draw 22%, Tapatío 19%.