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Cancún vs Venados FC: prediction and statistics
Mexico · Liga de Expansión · 18 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Cancún · Venados FC
Result
Our model: Cancún win 58%, draw 21%, Venados FC win 21%. Over 2.5 goals — 66%, both teams to score — 63%.
Form
Cancún: last five matches — W-L-W-W-W.
- 3 wins in a row · at home
- 3 matches unbeaten · at home
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · at home
Venados FC: last five matches — L-L-L-L-W.
- 8 matches in a row both teams scored · away
- 5 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · away
- 3 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Table: Cancún — 6, Venados FC — 4 (of 16).
Team statistics for three seasons
Cancún at home and Venados FC away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Cancún | Venados FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 37 | 36 |
| Win rate | 54% | 11% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.8 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 53% |
| Both teams score | 49% | 67% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | — | — |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | — | — |
Head to head
14 meetings in our database: Cancún won 3, 1 draws, Venados FC won 10. Per match: 2.3 goals.
- 11.02.2026: Venados FC 2:0 Cancún
- 14.09.2025: Cancún 1:0 Venados FC
- 16.02.2025: Cancún 1:2 Venados FC
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
Who is more likely to win Cancún vs Venados FC?
Our model: Cancún 58%, draw 21%, Venados FC 21%.