Xpect
FC Eindhoven vs Waalwijk: prediction and statistics
Netherlands · Eerste Divisie · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: FC Eindhoven · Waalwijk
Before kick-off
Eerste Divisie, 21 November 2026: FC Eindhoven are at home to Waalwijk. Waalwijk sit 8th in the 20-team table while FC Eindhoven are 17th, so 9 places separate the two sides.
FC Eindhoven are in a difficult spell: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in the last 5 matches. Waalwijk are still looking for a win: 3 draws and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches. In points that is almost level: 4 against 3.
At home (2024/25–2026/27) FC Eindhoven have 16 wins, 9 draws and 21 defeats in 46 matches, averaging 1.5 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. The away record of Waalwijk: 8 wins, 12 draws and 8 defeats in 28 matches, with 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded on average. Goals are rarely in short supply in these samples: 3.2 per game in home matches of FC Eindhoven and 3.0 in away matches of Waalwijk.
Head to head, FC Eindhoven have the upper hand: 5 wins in 8 meetings with Waalwijk in the Xpect database. The most recent meeting, on 27 February 2026, finished Waalwijk 2:1 FC Eindhoven. On average these meetings produce 2.9 goals.
Form
FC Eindhoven: last five matches — D-L-L-W-L.
- 5 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · at home
Waalwijk: last five matches — L-L-D-D-D.
- 5 matches without a win · away
- 4 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · away
- 3 matches unbeaten · away
Table: FC Eindhoven — 17, Waalwijk — 8 (of 20).
Home and away record
FC Eindhoven at home and Waalwijk away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| FC Eindhoven | Waalwijk | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 46 | 28 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 16-9-21 | 8-12-8 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.8 | 1.5 |
Head to head
8 meetings in our database: FC Eindhoven won 5, 0 draws, Waalwijk won 3. Per match: 2.9 goals.
- 27.02.2026: Waalwijk 2:1 FC Eindhoven
- 22.08.2025: FC Eindhoven 1:0 Waalwijk
- 03.05.2019: Waalwijk 3:1 FC Eindhoven
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Head to head favours FC Eindhoven: 5 wins in 8 meetings with Waalwijk.
- Our model expects more corners from Waalwijk: 6.0 against 4.3 for FC Eindhoven.
- Waalwijk is the more likely winner in our model: 53%, draw 23%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 70% of FC Eindhoven’s home matches and 54% of Waalwijk’s away matches over three seasons.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.3 corners in the match: FC Eindhoven 4.3, Waalwijk 6.0. In a typical match of this competition — 10.2. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 57% (typical match — 56%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 57%, typical match 56%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.4 yellow cards: FC Eindhoven 1.6, Waalwijk 1.8; typical match of the competition — 3.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 25% (typical match — 24%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 75%, typical match 76%.
Result
Our model: FC Eindhoven win 24%, draw 23%, Waalwijk win 53%. Over 2.5 goals — 59%, both teams to score — 59%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| FC Eindhoven | Waalwijk | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 35% | 29% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 54% |
| Both teams score | 52% | 71% |
| Total corners per match | 9.0 | 10.1 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 39% | 54% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 2.9 | 3.2 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 17% | 18% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 14.0 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 1.4 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.